Mavericks vs Timberwolves First Basket Odds and Picks — 5-30

The Minnesota Timberwolves live to fight another day! That means another round of “first basket” NBA bets for Game 5 of the Western Conference finals.

These quick-cashing prop bets are pretty straightforward: wager on which player you think will score the opening basket of the game.

Due to that solo result and wild unpredictability, these “first basket” bets usually start around +500 and go up  - reflecting the risk involved. So, like betting on any volatile market, keep it light and breezy with a fun flyer to get Game 5 underway.

I look at the recent scoring trends for the T-Wolves and Dallas Mavericks and give my best NBA picks and predictions for each team’s opening scorer on Thursday, May 30.

Mavericks vs Timberwolves first basket picks

• Dallas: Luka Doncic (+650)
• Minnesota: Jaden McDaniels (+900)

Click on each name to jump to the full analysis

Dallas Mavericks

First basket pick: Luka Doncic
(+650 at bet365)

I went with Luka Doncic as the opening scorer for Dallas in Game 4 and two of three things happened for this to cash.

The Mavericks won the tip and Luka took the first shot – as he’s done now in six of 16 postseason games — but couldn’t knock down that 23-foot 3-pointer. Kyrie Irving would record two points the next time down the floor — just the second time he’s scored first for Dallas in the playoffs.

While Doncic has failed to score first in the last three games of this series, he’s taken the first shot or had the ball in his hands (set up the opening bucket in Game 3) on that opening possession two other times.

As mentioned, he’s attempted the Mavs’ first shot in 37.5% of their postseason contests and has hit the team’s first basket in seven of those 16 games (43.75%), including Game 1 of the West finals.

His “first basket” odds are as low as +500 for Game 5 but you can find +650 at bet365 ahead of Thursday’s Game. FYI: The Mavericks have controlled the opening tip in three of the first four Games of the WCF.

Minnesota Timberwolves

First basket pick: Jaden McDaniels
(+900 at bet365)

Jaden McDaniels opened scoring for Minnesota in Game 4, which is something the 6-foot-9 forward has done quite a bit for the Wolves all season. 

On the year, McDaniels took Minnesota’s first shot in 10.3% of games — a pretty high rate considering KAT and ANT are on the floor in those opening possessions — and he scored the Wolves’ first basket at a team-high rate of 12.6% of contests. 

Put McDaniels inside the Target Center and that “first basket” percentage spikes to 19%. And whaddaya know, Game 5 is back in Minnesota.

He’s been just as active from the jump ball in the playoffs. After opening scoring for the Timberwolves with a 21-foot jumper in Game 4, McDaniels has taken the first shot in five of 15 postseason Games and broken the scoring seal in four of those showings.

McDaniels is priced at +900 to tally the first basket of Game 5, behind bigger-name talents who have been less active or equally as involved on the opening possession. He’s been a value FBB all year, so why stop now?

Mavericks vs Timberwolves first-basket odds

• Karl-Anthony Towns (+500)
• Anthony Edwards (+550)
• Luka Doncic (+600)
• Rudy Gobert (+600)
• Mike Conley (+800)
• Jaden McDaniels (+850)
• Kyrie Irving (+850)
• Daniel Gafford (+900)
• P.J. Washington (+1,300)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel.