Jessica Pegula vs Aryna Sabalenka Prediction 9-7-24 US Open Picks

Jessica Pegula and Aryna Sabalenka meet Saturday in the 2024 US Open Tennis final. Here’s a Jessica Pegula vs Aryna Sabalenka Prediction. This article will include a Jessica Pegula vs Aryna Sabalenka Pick.

Jessica Pegula Betting Preview

Jessica Pegula is coming off a 3 set win over Karolina Muchova that took 25 games to decide. In the victory, Pegula won 58 percent of her first serve points and 52 percent of her second serve points. Pegula won 56 percent of his total service points and converted on 5 of her 13 break points. Pegula got 67 percent of her first serves in play and hit 17 winners. Pegula found her game in the later parts of the match after losing the first set in 7 games and being down a break in the second. Pegula has dropped just one set this tournament, and she’s now won 5 straight matches that have gone the distance. 

Pegula looks to win her first grand slam title, her third title this year and the seventh title of her career. Pegula is 6-7 in final appearances for her career and 5-5 on hard court. Pegula has 21 career wins over top-10 players, and two of those wins have come this year. Pegula has won 9 of her last 10 matches on hard court.

Aryna Sabalenka Betting Preview

Aryna Sabalenka is coming off a straight set win over EMMA Navarro that took 22 Games to decide. In the victory, Sabalenka won 74 percent of her first serve points and 45 percent of her second serve points. Sabalenka won 65 percent of his total service points and converted on 3 of her 6 break points. Sabalenka got 68 percent of her first serves in play and hit 34 winners. Sabalenka got shaky toward the end of the second set but found her Game in a tiebreak that lasted just 9 points. Sabalenka has lost just one set this tournament and has won her last 8 sets overall. Thirteen of Sabalenka’s last 14 wins have been decided in straight sets. 

Sabalenka looks to win her first US Open title and her third career grand slam title. Sabalenka is 2-1 in grand slam final appearances and 15-14 in final appearances overall. Sabalenka is 2-3 in final appearances this year and 13-6 in finals on hard court for her career. Sabalenka has won 11 straight matches on hard court.

Jessica Pegula vs Aryna Sabalenka H2H

Sabalenka has won 5 of the 7 meetings against Pegula, including the most recent match this year in Cincinnati. Pegula’s last win over Sabalenka came last year in Cancun. Six of the 7 matches were decided in straight sets. The 4 matches on hard court have been split down the middle. The only other grand slam appearance was in the 2020 French Open, which Sabalenka won in straight sets.

Jessica Pegula vs Aryna Sabalenka Prediction

As I mentioned previously, Sabalenka should be favored, as she’s been the best player pretty much all year. When Sabalenka is hitting her spots, there’s not much anybody can do to counter her power. However, we did see Sabalenka get shaky toward the end of her semifinal match, and it was a reminder of what happened in this venue last year. The crowd clearly has an impact on Sabalenka, and New York will be behind the American Pegula. Also, Pegula has had success against Sabalenka on hard court, winning 2 of the 4 matches. Pegula has played a clean Game all tournament, and her ability to speed up her opponent has given opponents trouble. Sabalenka will not win this match if she tries to calm her nerves by going bigger than the last shot.

Sabalenka should be favored, but Pegula can not be slept on in this match. Getting nearly 2.5 times my money, I have to take a shot on Pegula at this price. This will be a comPetitive match.