The Houston Astros (86-73) and Cleveland Guardians (92-67) meet Friday as they swing into a 3-game series. The opening pitch at Progressive Field is slated for 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Astros vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Astros lead 2-1
Houston had an 8-2 stretch earlier this month (Sept. 12-21), but the Astros have scuffled over recent days, going 1-3 over their last 4 Games. Houston clinched its division Tuesday and is locked into the No. 3 seed in the American League.
Cleveland has been finishing strong after a sloppy start to the 2nd half. The Guardians went 17-21 July 19-Aug. 27. The AL Central champs and potential No. 1 seed in the AL playoffs are 17-9 since. Cleveland is 1 game back of the New York Yankees for the No. 1 seed in the AL, but the Yankees have the tiebreaker over the Guardians.
Astros at Guardians projected starters
LHP Ronel Blanco vs. RHP Joey Cantillo
Blanco (12-6, 2.88 ERA) makes his 29th start and 30th appearance. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 through 162 1/3 IP.
- Last outing: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 9 K in 10-4 home victory vs. Los Angeles Angels Saturday
- Owns 0.95 ERA over his last 19 IP
- Career vs. Guardians: 0-0, 1 home start (Aug. 2, 2023), 4 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 4 BB, 3 K in 3-2 win
Cantillo (2-3, 4.63 ERA) is tabbed for his 8th start and 9th appearance. He owns a 1.20 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 through 35 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 1 ER (2 R), 3 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 3-2 home win in 10 innings vs. Minnesota Twins Sept. 19
- Has never faced Astros
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Astros at Guardians odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Thursday at 10:18 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Astros +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Guardians -125 (bet $125 to win $118)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+165) | Guardians +1.5 (-225)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Astros at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 4, Astros 3
Moneyline
Houston — with just a 39-43 mark against clubs that are .500 or better — is capable of pedestrian road numbers at times. The Astros own a .671 OPS over their last 14 road Games.
Peripheral numbers point to better expected-ERA results for Cantillo and lesser ones for Blanco. Cantillo, for instance, has been undone by a .333 batting average on balls in play in high-leverage situations. Over recent starts, he’s been missing more bats in the zone.
The weather report shows a likely brisk wind helping the batters. That’s more of a disadvantage for Blanco, who yields more fly-ball contact.
On a small lean (consider a partial-unit play), consider CLEVELAND (-118). That price is available through FanDuel Sportsbook.
Run line/Against the spread
The Guardians and the Under are the leans. The pricing where those plays collide is not attractive. STEER CLEAR.
Over/Under
The Under is 6-1 across Houston’s last 7 road Games and 5-1 in Cleveland’s last 6 overall.
The Astros’ road offense and the Guardians’ bullpen are significant green check marks in the Under column. A day of rest for both bullpens (both clubs were off Thursday) swings this one into better arms late.
BACK THE UNDER 8 (-115).
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