F1 Hungarian GP Best Bets, Picks and Predictions | Pickswise

Welcome back Daniel Ricciardo to the F1 gird. Even though the teams have been off for a week, there was still a driver replaced for AlphaTauri, aka Red Bull lite. Heading into the Hungary Grand Prix at the Hungaroring we’ve reached the home stretch before the upcoming Summer Break in August. What can we expect from Ricciardo and the rest of the field in Hungary? Does the driver lineup change at AlphaTauri change how we’re betting this race? What are we looking for when betting heading into the Hungary GP? What teams and setups are we looking at for Hungary? All of those answers are coming up along with the winner predictions and top prop bets for Sunday’s race at 9am ET on ESPN.

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F1 Hungaroring Track Layout

On the schedule since 1986, the track just outside of Budapest has been offering an interesting race ever since. The 2.72-mi (4.38-km), 14-turn layout is one of the toughest on teams on the schedule. Why is it so tough? There’s really only one straight on the track and the corners are almost entirely low-speed. That’s a sharp contrast to the recent tracks we’ve seen the F1 cars on of late. With all of the low-speed corners and really only one straight it also means that overtaking can be very hard here as passing in the corners takes a lot of setup and waiting or forcing a driver into an error. Unlikely, to say the least.

What is the F1 car setup for Hungary GP?

So, given the layout of the track and all of the lower-speed corners, what are the teams looking to do with the cars? Pirelli is bringing the softest compounds in their lineup this weekend to get the necessary grip for the track. In addition to the softest tires, the levels of downforce here are huge. Teams who want to be successful at the Hungaroring have to bring cars setup like they’re racing at Monaco. There are a few other tracks with decently high downforce setups but none as much as Hungary and Monaco.

What is the betting strategy for F1 Hungary GP?

With the track layout and car setups in mind, how are we approaching this race for betting? We’re mainly looking at the teams that did well at Monaco earlier in the year given the same setup. It’s not exactly a parade-style race but it’s close so we’re also looking at the teams that do well at qualifying. That will clearly give them an advantage on Sunday. It’s not just the one race that we’re comparing to though, we can also look at Spain a tad too since that was a track where passing was tough once again and it’s a high downforce track. The setups for both of those tracks fit well with Hungary and both were tracks where updates weren’t as key.

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F1 Hungary Grand Prix Winner Best Bets

Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing

Max Verstappen (-333)

We can’t in good faith not mention Verstappen in a betting piece at this point. He, or his teammate, mentioned below, are the only ones who’ve won races this year and they’re going for an F1-record of consecutive wins this weekend. It hasn’t mattered the track type this year, Red Bull has been upfront. If you want slightly better odds we can bet Verstappen to win the pole at -280 but it might be safer to bet him for the win given he’s got more wins than poles.

Sergio Perez (+1000)

This one is a tad riskier than a 10-1 line should suggest. Firstly, we all know that Verstappen doesn’t like to cede anything to his teammate even the fastest lap. Secondly, he’s had a lot of trouble in qualifying over the last several races. That being said, he’s also proven he can move up well through the field even with those struggles including starting P11 at Spain and finishing P4. If he can get back on the good foot in qualifying Red Bull could decide to throw Perez a bone and give him the top spot in strategy to strengthen their lead in both championships and boost Checo’s confidence.

Fernando Alonso (+1400)

Had Aston Martin played their cards right at Monaco we’d be talking about Alonso winning rather than another Red Bull victory. Alonso has also been remarkably consistent in Hungary during his career including his first win ever coming here. It has been a bit of a rough patch for Alonso and Aston Martin but getting back to a track where it’s tough to pass could be a recipe for getting Alonso back on track.

Lando Norris (+2000)

The only team to challenge Red Bull last week was McLaren and Lando Norris. Granted that was a different style of track and Monaco and Spain weren’t exactly great for Team McLaren. However, we’re betting on the mojo of last week carrying over. There’s also the fact that he qualified P3 in Spain before strategy mishaps took them out of contention. He will need the Silverstone speed again and luck on his side but McLaren is looking sportier of late.

Best Prop Bets for Hungary Grand Prix

Fastest Qualifier Without Mercedes, Red Bull, or Ferrari – Lando Norris (+200)

While it’s tempting to put money on Fernando Alonso at -110 in this prop given he pulled this off each of the first six rounds of the year. It’s tough to deny what Norris is doing currently. He pulled this off at Spain, Austria, and Great Britain as well as through Q2 at Canada. That’s three of four recent races plus 2/3 of the other qualifying. So we’re taking the hot hand in this one for a better return.

Daniel Ricciardo Top-10 Finish (+225)

Welcome back to the grid, now let’s score some World Championship points. It’s not like we’re talking about a driver who’s been sitting on the sideline for a while like Nico Hulkenberg was or a rookie coming in like Nyck De Vries. Ricciardo is a Grand Prix winner and he’s taking over a solid car. The AlphaTauri ride he’s taking over finished P12 at Monaco and his teammate ran P12 at Spain. Ricciardo had more speed in the sim for Hungary than his teammate and should be able to nab at least a top-10 in his first race back since the end of 2022.

Alpine Double Top-10 Finish (+150)

The duo of Pierre Gasly and Esteban Ocon have pulled this off at both comparable tracks, Monaco and Spain, this year. They came close at Austria had it not been for Ocon’s massive time penalty for track limits and not serving a penalty properly. They have had good speed at high downforce tracks and this return is a nice one for something that’s already happened a few times.

Esteban Ocon Top-6 Finish (+550)

The return is steep for sure and usually that has a limited chance of happening in F1. However, he nabbed a podium at Monaco thanks to creative strategy and a great drive and then started P6 in the grid at Spain. Granted he finished P8 in that race but if that speed shows up again at a track with a similar setup and he keeps the car between the white lines, we’re looking at a great return here.

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