F1 Italian GP Best Bets, Picks and Predictions: Ferrari stronger at Monza

The second half of the 2023 F1 season began as the first half had ended with another dominant performance from Max Verstappen in the Dutch Grand Prix at Zandvoort.

The Dutch driver has now won 9 races in a row and 11 of the 13 this season, with his Red Bull teammate Sergio Perez being the only other man to stand on the top step of the podium. The fight to be best of the rest is actually getting pretty close, with Ferrari, Mercedes, McLaren and Aston Martin all capable of challenging for the lower podium places depending on the track, but that close racing is all happening a fair distance behind mighty Max.

The classic track at Monza doesn’t allow Red Bull to make the most of its aerodynamic advantages, however, and the high-speed circuit always makes for a great spectacle. Let’s look at the best bets to make in Italy this weekend.

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F1 Italian Grand Prix Best Bet

Charles Leclerc podium finish (+130, FanDuel)

While the Monza layout somewhat neuters Verstappen’s car advantage as the track is mostly a series of long straights, but it’s no surprise to see him listed at -600 odds for the race win given what we’ve seen so far this year. Verstappen also won at Monza last year, although that was his first win in this event and Red Bull’s first success at the track since Sebastian Vettel in 2013. The previous two Monza races have produced surprise results, with safety-car periods playing a role as Pierre Gasly won in 2020, while Daniel Ricciardo led home a McLaren 1-2 finish in 2021.

There are two other spots on the podium that Verstappen can’t fill, and my favorite bet for Sunday’s race is for Charles Leclerc to claim one of them. The now long-suffering Ferrari fans would love nothing more than to see things finally falling into place for the man from Monaco and he has plenty going for him this week.

Leclerc’s 3 podium finishes this season were all achieved at tracks where the emphasis is on power with long straights in Azerbaijan, Austria and Belgium, and he was also fast at another circuit where engines matter more than most in Bahrain.

This is the fastest layout the drivers tackle all season and Ferrari showed plenty of promise in Friday’s practice sessions, with Carlos Sainz 2nd and Leclerc 4th behind Verstappen in the morning session, while Sainz was fastest with Leclerc 6th in the afternoon. Leclerc was 2nd in this race last year, and sent the Italian crowd crazy with his win there in 2019, so a return to the podium is not out of the question on Sunday.

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F1 Italian Grand Prix Best Prop Bets

Alex Albon top-6 finish (+270, FanDuel)

One characteristic that has been hard to ignore in F1 over the last couple of seasons is that the Williams car comes to life in low-drag situations, showing some blistering straight-line speed. That would have made the blue cars of Alex Albon and Logan Sargeant interesting to watch on the long straightaways at Monza in any case, but the car’s general improvement in recent races makes them even more attractive this week. Albon qualified 4th and finished 8th at the Dutch Grand Prix on a circuit that really shouldn’t have suited his car, so he can have high hopes of gatecrashing the top 6 at the one track on the calendar that looks tailor-made for Williams.

Logan Sargeant top-10 finish (+300 at DraftKings)

Albon’s American teammate Logan Sargeant hasn’t had the best of rookie seasons, with a best finish of 11th place, and he crashed out while Albon was mixing it with the big boys in the Netherlands. He was 12th fastest in first practice on Friday, though, and Albon’s 7th place in the afternoon again highlighted the car’s potential. The big odds of +300 for Sargeant to claim his first points finish in F1 by taking a top-10 finish are worth a sprinkle.

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