F1 Belgian GP Best Bets, Picks and Predictions: *STORY*

The notorious Belgian Grand Prix….. It’s this weekend at Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps. Why notorious? Well, for several reasons with only a couple relating to the track itself. One thing’s for sure, though: when the racing is at Spa, it’s never a simple, uncomplicated weekend. The Belgian GP is the last race before the Summer Break for August so expect some pressure on teams to head into the break on better footing and with better mojo.

How are we looking at this race this weekend? What are the bets we like for the F1 Belgian GP? What weather is expected at Spa and Malmedy Belgium this weekend? What are the prop bets we like? All that is below for your perusal.

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Weather at Spa and Malmedy Belgium this weekend

Not great to be frank. It rained on Friday, is forecast to rain on Saturday for the Sprint Qualifying and Sprint Race, and is forecast for more of the same on Sunday, That leads to a chaotic race weekend, especially with only one practice scheduled to get set for the race. Even if the forecast had said it’d be clear, there’s always a shot for mist/fog/rain around the hilly, lengthy track.

Spa-Francorchamps track layout

Spa is the longest track on the F1 schedule and is a fan- and driver-favorite alike. The 4.3-mile (7.004-km) track has 19 corners and long straights. It’s a great balance of elevation change, especially in Eau Rouge, fast corners, a couple of low-speed corners, and on throttle time. The length of the lap gives plenty of chances for mess ups and passing zones, even in places we’d not think are traditional spots. The length of the lap here means this is the race with the fewest number of laps in a race on the F1 schedule at 44.

Betting strategy for F1 Belgian Grand Prix

Expect chaos. This is by far the track that leads to the most chaos over the course of a race of any on the schedule. The length of the laps, the weather, the challenge of the layout, and the tight confines in some parts and passing zones brings plenty of chances for chaos and incidents. Heck, even the first corner at the start is a threat for chaos. The teams and cars that have done well on the bigger, more on-throttle tracks this year are ones that should do well on Sunday at Spa as well. Places like Jeddah, Australia, Silverstone, and even Bahrain are tracks that teams will have similar setups to Spa.

Winner predictions for the Belgian GP

All odds listed are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.

Max Verstappen -300 (FanDuel)

Yes, he’s starting P6 on Sunday after losing 5 spots thanks to a gear box penalty. However, he still ran the best lap in qualifying after not running a timed lap in practice. Let’s not forget he came from P14 last year at Spa to win his home grand prix and should have no trouble passing for the lead again this year. In fact, don’t be surprised if he’s atop the pylon by the end of Lap 3 on Sunday.

Sergio Perez +600

Is this finally the week for Checo to return to the top of the podium? He finally had a good qualifying session and has come into the weekend confident once more. Now he’s starting P2, thanks to his teammate’s equipment penalty which should give him the upper hand, at least to start. If Red Bull is serious about seeing what Checo can do and giving him a shot to get a victory, this would be a weekend for it.

Charles Leclerc +1800

The fact that the pole-sitter is 18-1 — on both DraftKings and FanDuel — is a tad insulting to a driver like Leclerc. But to be honest, he wasn’t actually on the pole until Verstappen was moved back five spots, and it’s still Ferrari with their bad pit strategies. That doesn’t sound like a selling point I know, but he’s still fast and Ferrari has still had speed to comPete on tracks like this. If he gets a good start and extends the lead enough to take strategy out of it for a bit, this line could be in his favor.

Lando Norris +3200 (FanDuel)

This is arguably too long of odds for a guy with back-to-back podiums. He’s +2500 to win on DraftKings so FanDuel is the better book to bet. Either way though, McLaren’s top end speed and balance in every kind of corner is hard to ignore right now and makes them a threat each week at this point. He does have his work cutout for him starting P7 behind Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc and his teammate, as well as Sergio Perez, but hey Verstappen won from P14 last year so….

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Best prop bets for F1 at Spa

Lando Norris Podium Finish +220 (FanDuel)

He’s coming off back-to-back podium finishes — his first career back-to-back podiums — and we’re trusting the speed in the McLarens. Norris may have been out-qualified by his teammate Oscar Piastri (+270 FanDuel Podium Finish) but the team orders and rain-driving favor Norris. That should help him make up ground and nab a third-straight podium as the speed in the McLarens is hard to comPete with.

Yuki Tsunoda Top-10 Finish +100

If there’s been a bright spot for AlphaTauri this year it’s been the solid speed shown by Tsunoda. Has he posted the results the speed should’ve garnered? No. But that’s mainly down to pit strategy and some bad luck. He started the year with five straight top-11 finishes and if the speed shows up again, with him starting P11, he should threaten another top-10 finish on the year at a track the AlphaTauris should be sporty at.

Max Verstappen Fastest Lap -175

Even if he isn’t going to win, which isn’t likely, he’ll be sure to set the fastest lap. Heck even if/when he does win he’s likely to set the fastest lap like he’s done a ton this year. He had the best qualifying lap on Friday in the dry and should be just as quick in the wet as well.

Logan Sargeant First To Retire +1200 (FanDuel)

The race is going to be chaotic even if it’s dry so why not take a shot on a long shot prop? It’s been a long rookie season for Sargeant and Williams and he wrecked in the rain at practice on Friday. Sargeant has had a tough go of it in the best of circumstances trying to keep the car clean and the weather that’s expected for the race is not the best of circumstances. It’s never fun to root for a guy to crash, but in this case we’re just going with trends.

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