Expert MLB best bets, picks and predictions today, 7/28 | Pickswise

TGIF, am I right? To celebrate, I’ve identified a pair of spots in today’s huge slate that I’ve made my best bets. I’m once again fading the White Sox, who are in the midst of selling everyone, and the Red Sox, who have caught fire in July. Let’s get into my MLB best bets for Friday, and be sure to also visit our MLB predictions for all of today’s Games.

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Cleveland Guardians ML (-138) over Chicago White Sox

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All aboard the Fade the White Sox train! The Sox have lost 6 games in a row to the Twins, Cubs and Guardians, and it appears that things are going to get worse before they get better in Chicago. Lucas Giolito was the first White Sox player to be dealt at the deadline, and make no mistake — he won’t be the last. Tim Anderson and Joe Kelly are both on the trade block, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see either or both guys leaving. But back to this game — the Sox will turn to Touki Toussaint for his 5th start and 9th appearance of the season. The veteran arm has been decent this season with a 4.07 ERA, but his 4.78 xERA and 16.7% walk rate are concerning. His control issues were a big reason why Toussaint was DFA by the Guardians earlier this year, and now he has to face his former team.

The Guardians are in a dogfight with the Twins for the AL Central title, 1.5 games back of Minnesota. That means this series against the lowly White Sox is even more crucial. In order to catch the Twins, the Guardians must win the games against lower-quality teams. For today’s matchup, Cleveland will start Xzavion Curry, a relief arm from their bullpen. Nearly all of Curry’s appearances have come in relief, but he has made 2 starts in his last 3 appearances and limited hitters to 1 run and 2 hits in 6 innings. I’m expecting Curry to go only 2-3 innings before he hands the baton off to the next reliever, and that should work in Cleveland’s favor since they have one of the more reliable arm barns in baseball. I have the Guardians projected as -160 favorites, so there’s value at a -140 price.

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Boston Red Sox ML (+126) over San Francisco Giants

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The Boston Red Sox have caught fire in the last few weeks. They are coming off a 2-Game sweep of the Atlanta Braves at Fenway Park and had a Travel day on Thursday to prepare for this 3-Game series in San Francisco. It’s impressive to think that the Red Sox are having all of this success without Trevor Story, Chris Sale or Garrett Whitlock, but somehow, they just keep on winning. On Friday night, they will give the ball to Kutter Crawford for his 10th start since rejoining the rotation. After being moved from the bullpen to the rotation, Crawford has a 4.43 ERA and has limited hitters to a .257 batting average and .232 xBA. His first start after the break was his best of the season as he threw 6 scoreless innings and surrendered just 1 hit while striking out 9.

One of Logan Webb’s best qualities is being able to go deep into Games. In his first 20 starts, Webb completed at least 6 innings in 17 outings. That’s a manager’s dream in today’s era of baseball, but that wasn’t the case in his most recent outing. Webb lasted just 1.1 innings against the Nationals last week – the shortest start of his career. He was rocked for 6 runs and 5 hits in just 1.1 innings which was the most uncharacteristic thing we’ve seen from Webb in a long time. And unfortunately for Webb, the Giants’ lineup has been ice-cold at the plate recently. Since the All-Star break, San Francisco is hitting .192 with a .619 OPS and just a 71 wRC+. And before winning their last 2 against the A’s, the Giants had lost 6 in a row to the Reds, Nationals and Tigers. At plus-odds, I like Boston’s chances.

You can also read our MLB mega parlay and our Guardians vs White Sox Same Game Parlay

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