College Football Week 1 Best Bets: Thursday NCAAF Predictions | Pickswise

The long and eventful offseason is in the rearview mirror and the 2024 college Football season is upon us. Week 0 was a nice apPetizer, but the battle for a spot in the brand new 12-team College Football Playoff begins in earnest on Thursday and won’t slow down until December. With a whole host of teams added to the playing field in this new playoff format, who will reach the pinnacle of the sport this season? It’s almost time to find out.

With the offseason chaos behind us and our extensive college football previews for every conference available for your reading pleasure, it’s time to get into the Week 1 slate with the return of my weekly best bets column. Much like the year prior, the 2023 season was a profitable one for this column, as I finished with a win rate of 60%, highlighted by a 9-2 run to close out bowl season and the College Football Playoff. Hopefully you cashed with me!

While we didn’t get off to a great start in Week 0, there are tons of games with value in the first full night of games on Thursday. Let’s take a look at our college football picks for the opening day of this Week 1 football extravaganza.

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North Carolina Tar Heels ML over Minnesota Golden Gophers (-120)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to UNC -2. 

This is a fascinating contest between a pair of teams that are both looking to move on in the wake of significant roster turnover. For North Carolina, star quarterback Drake Maye has moved on to the NFL ranks, while the team’s top two receivers in J.J. Jones and Tez Walker are also no longer with the program. On offense, the Tar Heels do bring in experience at quarterback with former LSU and Texas A&M QB Max Johnson. Head coach Mack Brown is on record that he will employ a 2-quarterback system, at least in the early part of the schedule, with Johnson battling redshirt sophomore Conner Harrell, who should know the system a little better after playing in 5 games a season ago. Defensively, former Temple and Georgia Tech head coach Geoff Collins is returning to his defensive coordinator roots, and I expect this defensive unit to immediately improve under Collins’ tutelage, along with some key additions in the transfer portal.

While I’m generally leaning positive on North Carolina’s outlook this season, I can’t say the same for Minnesota, especially early on. The Gophers have traditionally struggled in Week 1 Games under PJ Fleck, and it doesn’t help that star running back Darius Taylor is questionable for this Game. Taylor is easily the focal point for this otherwise below-average offense, and the Gophers could be in major trouble on Thursday if he’s unable to be that bell cow out of the backfield. Minnesota is also turning to an FCS transfer in QB Max Brosmer to try and inject some energy into an offense that was lifeless a season ago. Brosmer was solid at New Hampshire, but can he shine in his first Game against a massive step up in comPetition? I’m not so sure, so let’s back North Carolina on the money line with my first best bet.

Lock in our college football parlay picks for Thursday’s action

North Dakota State Bison vs Colorado Buffaloes Under 60.5 (-110)

Odds widely available at time of publishing.

I’m pretty close to market with how I see this game from a point spread perspective, but I do see some value on the total in this contest, and I’m not afraid to fade the steam in the market with this wager. Over the first half of last season, Colorado’s offense certainly shocked plenty of folks across the country and Shedeur Sanders, Travis Hunter and company certainly got the lionshare of the praise for their performance. However, it was really offensive coordinator Sean Lewis who was responsible for Colorado’s extreme tempo increase and higher scoring output (top 15 in pace). Unfortunately for the Buffaloes, this strategy proved to be costly on the other side of the ball as the defense was often hung out to dry. As the season went on, Pat Shurmur was promoted to the OC role and the offense not only cratered statistically, but it also marked a significant downshift in tempo for a group that’s used to playing fast. That should once again be the case this year as Shurmur ensures that Sanders is protected behind a new-look offensive line.

On the other side, the Bison return the majority of their starters from a team that averaged 38 points per game and made the FCS Playoff semifinals a season ago. And what North Dakota State should want to do in this high-profile spot as significant road underdogs is to move the ball and chew up clock via extended scoring drives. The Buffaloes were 125th in 3rd down defense last season, while North Dakota State checked in at the #3 spot in all of FCS in 3rd down success on offense. The market is still pricing Colorado like this is Sean Lewis’ offense, so let’s take advantage of that while we can and take the under 60.5 with my second best bet.

Read our full North Dakota State vs Colorado prediction