College Football Group of 5 Conferences Predictions & Best Bets | Pickswise

It’s been a long and eventful spring and summer, and now the 2024 college football season is just one week away. The battle for a spot in the brand new 12-team College Football Playoff begins on August 24 and won’t slow down until a champion is crowned next January. Last season’s National Championship game saw Michigan knock off Washington to claim its first national title in 27 years. Who will reach the pinnacle of the sport in this new playoff format this season? It’s almost time to find out.

With the offseason chaos in the rearview mirror and the new season on the horizon, it’s time to delve into the futures market for each conference. With my Mountain West preview already in the books, I’ll be taking a look at the four remaining Group of 5 conferences in this piece, as each of these leagues should have at least one contender for that coveted Group of 5 spot in the 12-team playoff this fall. However, there are sure to be upsets abound in some of these conferences, so don’t expect a straightforward path for the favorites in each league. Without any further ado, let’s take a look at the latest college Football odds for each of the Group of 5 conferences, along with our NCAAF picks and best bets within the Sun Belt, MAC, AAC and Conference USA. 

Sun Belt Conference Odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and available at time of publishing.

• Appalachian State (+275)
• Texas State (+400)
• Louisiana (+600)
• James Madison (+750)
• South Alabama (+1200)
• Troy (+1600)
• Arkansas State (+1600)
• Marshall (+1600)
• Coastal Carolina (+2000)
• Georgia Southern (+2500)
• Old Dominion (+3000)

The Sun Belt has long been one of my favorite conferences in the land and this year’s version of the “Fun Belt” should produce a team with a pretty decent chance of making the College Football Playoff. At the top, Appalachian State is loaded for bear on offense while Texas State should also rack up a ton of points this season under head coach G.J. Kinne. However, the team with the best schedule in the conference is James Madison, as the Dukes have a very favorable road schedule in Bob Chesney’s first year at the helm. Further down the board, I fully expect Troy to take a major step back after losing its head coach and a ton of production a season ago, while Arkansas State’s electric offense and favorable schedule of opposing defenses make it a decent longshot bet to win the conference.

Sun Belt winner prediction: Appalachian State (+275)

Sun Belt Best Bet: Old Dominion Monarchs under 4.5 wins (-140)

Heading into last season, one of my bigger futures positions was on Old Dominion to go under their win total. And while the Monarchs ended up clearing this total by 2 full wins and qualified for a bowl game in the process, they certainly were fortunate in doing so. Old Dominion won all 6 of its games by one possession, and what’s even more improbable is that 5 of those victories came in the final seconds of the game. There were even 2 wins decided by failed 2-point conversion attempts from the opponent, further pointing to the ridiculous run of good fortune that this team managed to bottle up and run with last fall. I don’t expect  that to continue for a second consecutive season, especially with the talent and experience that the Monarchs lost on both sides of the ball in the offseason.

Old Dominion also has the 66th ranked schedule in the country per Phil Steele’s schedule rankings, which is not where you want to be as a lower tier Sun Belt team. The Monarchs have a brutal nonconference slate, where they’ll be heavy underdogs to South Carolina and Virginia Tech, while also having to play Bowling Green and East Carolina (two teams I’m very high on this season). It’s entirely possible that this team starts out 0-4, and that’s before we get into a conference slate that features Games against Texas State, Appalachian State, Arkansas State, James Madison and Coastal Carolina. Home Games against Georgia Southern and Marshall are the best chances for wins on this slate, and even if the Monarchs also knock off Georgia State, that brings us to just 3 wins on the season. That leaves room for an upset and we still cash this win total under. Once again, an Old Dominion under is one of my biggest positions in the futures market this season.

MAC Conference Odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and available at time of publishing.

• Miami Ohio (+250)
• Toledo (+330)
• Northern Illinois (+650)
• Western Michigan (+650)
• Bowling Green (+700)
• Ohio (+1200)
• Central Michigan (+1200)
• Eastern Michigan (+3600)
• Ball State (+4600)
• Akron (+6500)
• Kent State (+12000)

The MAC is often a wide open conference, but this year feels even more wide open than usual. Defending champion Miami Ohio is a little weaker than a season ago, but the Redhawks still have Brett Gabbert at quarterback and a defense that should be strong once again. Toledo is traditionally the most talented team in this league, the Rockets lost a ton of offensive production in the transfer portal and face a tougher nonconference schedule with effects that could carry over into MAC play. The trio of Northern Illinois, Western Michigan and Bowling Green seem poised to make a leap forward this season and contend for a conference championship. I’m highest on Bowling Green’s defense, schedule and quarterback situation, so I like the Falcons to bring home the MAC championship at 7-1 odds.

MAC winner prediction: Bowling Green (+700)

MAC Best Bet: Ohio Bobcats under 6.5 wins (-150)

Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Ohio had a terrific season in 2023, finishing with a 10-3 record and coming up just short of playing in the MAC title Game thanks to a loss against Northern Illinois. However, I’m extremely pessimistic on the Bobcats’ future this season. Ohio returns just 1 starter on each side of the ball, in addition to losing its defensive coordinator to Memphis. Former All-Conference quarterback Kurtis Rourke is off to Indiana, and the Bobcats also lost 9 of their top 12 tacklers on the other side of the ball. This schedule is also pretty unforgiving, particularly to start the season, as Ohio will be a significant underdog in 3 of its first 4 Games. The Bobcats do avoid Bowling Green and Western Michigan in league play, but that’s hardly a fair trade off for having to face Toledo and Miami Ohio on the road. I think this team is more likely to finish with 5 wins than 7, so let’s grab the under.

Don’t miss our NCAAF National Championship best bets for the upcoming season, including a +6500 longshot!

AAC Conference Odds

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook time of publishing.

• Memphis (+230)
• Tulane (+330)
• UTSA (+500)
• South Florida (+700)
• East Carolina (+2000)
• Rice (+2000)
• North Texas (+2500)
• Florida Atlantic (+3000)
• UAB (+3000)
• Navy (+4000)
• Tulsa (+5000)

The American is poised to be the top conference in the Group of 5 for years to come and while there’s a lot of turnover among a few of the top programs this season, we can still trust that the likes of Tulane and UTSA are still going to be rock solid teams. South Florida is a program on the rise, as the Bulls surprised many across the conference last year with one of the best offenses in the Group of 5. Elsewhere, East Carolina and Rice project to be a couple of massively improved teams, with the Pirates boasting a terrific defense while the Owls offense should soar thanks to new quarterback EJ Warner (son of Kurt Warner). There are plenty of worthy challengers, but I’m still of the belief that the chalk will hold in this league. Memphis has too much talent and experience to not be the favorite, and I think +230 is a fair price on the Tigers to get the job done.

AAC winner prediction: Memphis (+230)

AAC Best Bet: Temple Owls under 2.5 wins (-120)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Temple was a whopping 3-9 a season ago, and that was with a very talented quarterback on its roster in EJ Warner. This fall, things could get pretty bleak for a once proud program that I have as a bottom 3 team in all of FBS. The Owls are 130th in returning production and might have the worst defense in the nation, to go along with an offensive line that has to replace multiple starters from the 2023 team. When Warner was hurt last season, this looked like the worst team in the nation, so to be without their former best player and have a schedule that is one of the more challenging slates in this conference? That doesn’t bode well for a team going through a complete and total rebuild. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Owls went 1-11 this season, but I certainly can’t see more than 2 victories.

Now read our expert’s CFB Win Total best bets, targeting Georgia, Colorado and more

Conference USA Odds

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.

• Liberty (-195)
• Western Kentucky (+450)
• Jacksonville State (+750)
• Sam Houston State (+1800)
• Middle Tennessee (+2500)
• Louisiana Tech (+3000)
• UTEP (+6000)
• New Mexico State (+8000)
• FIU (+10000)

Conference USA is a pretty straightforward league at this point; there’s Liberty, and then there’s everyone else. The Flames are the odds-on favorite to win this league, and I fully expect them to do so. The drop-off is just too steep in terms of talent and experience for the reset of the conference to keep up. Western Kentucky should take another minor step back, and a difficult nonconference schedule won’t help matters in terms of building momentum for a successful season. Jacksonville State has the toughest road schedule of any second-tier team in this conference, but Sam Houston State is a team I’m targeting with real upside if the Bearkats can just figure out the offensive side of the ball. I’d be very surprised if more than 4 teams from this league went bowling.

Conference USA winner prediction: Liberty (-195)

Conference USA best bet: Liberty to win the conference (-195)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.

I’m not thrilled with laying this kind of juice but I still think this is underpriced at the current number. Based on the level of competition in this league, the Flames would likely have to lose multiple conference games to not make the C-USA title game. Given that they’ll likely be double digit favorites in every conference game, that would be a massive shock to me and the rest of the college football betting world. We’re basically getting a -195 money line ticket for the Conference USA championship game, a number that will surely hold plenty of value by the time we reach that fateful week in early December. The Flames should coast to a C-USA crown, the only suspense left on their schedule is if they’ll go undefeated in the process.

Read our full SEC preview and predictions, including a best bet at +800 odds