Cavaliers vs Celtics Predictions, Picks & Odds - Game 1

The Cleveland Cavaliers pulled off a Game 7 comeback to stay alive in the NBA playoffs, and their reward is the miserable fate of facing the Boston Celtics. The Cavs are mere +1,200 underdogs to win this series; Cavaliers vs. Celtics predictions strongly suggest this series will last just five games.

The Celtics’ greatest edge is their defense, which removes a lot of variance from any matchup, reducing an underdog’s best hope. The biggest name on the Cavs’ roster may try to shoot his way through that, but it is more likely he does not even get looks at the hoop.

So let’s fade a Donovan Mitchell prop in our free NBA picks Cleveland vs. Boston, with tip on Tuesday, May 7, at 7:00 P.M. ET.

Cavaliers vs Celtics predictions

My best bet
Donovan Mitchell Under 27.5 points (-104 at FanDuel)

Best odds available in your region

My analysis
Donovan Mitchell dazzled to end the first-round series against the Magic, scoring 89 points in the final two games on 52.4% shooting. He scored 44% of Cleveland’s points in those final two games.

That latter stat stands out.

Boston knows who represents the Cavaliers’ only chance in this Eastern Conference semifinal. And the Celtics have the defenders to stop Mitchell. From Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown to Derrick White and Jrue Holiday, every one of Mitchell’s minutes will include at least two of those perimeter defenders, some of the best in the NBA.

He may fare better than Jamal Murray is managing against the Timberwolves’ unparalleled defense, but like Murray and his nagging calf that so frustratingly needs in-game heat treatments, Mitchell’s coming misery will be compounded by injury. He has been playing through a knee worry that clearly bothers him on the court.

That touch of lost explosion costs Mitchell the asset that can turn him into a prolific scorer against even the best defenses. The first-round series lasting seven games will prove doubly worrisome for Cleveland in this particular regard. Mitchell had just two days to recover.

Yes, he still cleared this points prop in his last two games. But he needed 17 trips to the free throw line in Game 7 to score his 39, and fouls are generally called less often early in a series. Furthermore, Mitchell fell short of his prop in the four previous games, averaging just 20.5 points on 18.75 shots per game.

That was all against a lesser defense. Added wear on his knee and now against the second-best defense in the NBA should mean Mitchell has a relatively sluggish Game 1 tonight.

Cavaliers vs Celtics same-game parlay (SGP)

Donovan Mitchell Under 27.5 points

Donovan Mitchell Under 2.5 made threes

Cavaliers team total Under 98.5 points

+276 at DraftKings

Obviously, every leg of this same-game parlay is correlated, but they are correlated so heavily, a +276 payout is still of value.

Mitchell shot 13-of-52 from beyond the arc in the first round, including 5-of-17 in the final two games. Even when he was putting up points, Mitchell struggled from deep. He hit at least three 3-pointers in just two games of the series.

Cleveland fell short of this team total in five of those seven games. And, again, that was against the Magic. Orlando is good with a promising future, but its defense isn't on Boston’s level.

This is a parlay that would have cashed three out of seven times in the last round, so odds of +276 are delightful.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Cavaliers vs Celtics odds

Cavaliers vs Celtics live odds

Get the latest Cavaliers vs Celtics NBA playoff odds for Game 1.

Cavaliers vs Celtics opening odds

• Spread: Cleveland +11 (-102) | Boston -11 (-108)
• Moneyline: Cleveland +473 | Boston -601
• Over/Under: Over 209 (-107) | Under 209 (-105)

Cavaliers vs Celtics spread and Over/Under analysis

• This spread opened on Sunday evening with Boston favored by 11, and it ticked to -11.5 on Monday morning, -12 on Tuesday morning, and then to -12.5 around midday. Some of that Tuesday move may simply be public money showing up late in the process.
  
  
• The total opened at 209 and dipped to 208 on Monday night before Tuesday steam to 211.5. Given the 10 Game 1s have featured seven Unders thus far in the postsesason, this may be an ideal time to hit the Under.
  
  
• To further that Under suggestion, 47% of the betting handle at BetMGM was on the Under as of Tuesday morning, despite having only 33% of the bets.

Cavaliers vs Celtics trend

Lost amid the worry when the Heat won a game last round, the Celtics covered the spread in all four of their wins, spreads that were all in the double digits, and covered them by an average of nine points compared to expectations. Find more NBA betting trends for Cavaliers vs. Celtics.

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