Best NBA Player Props Today – NBA Playoff Prop Bets

Prop bet #1: More Russ, no fuss

I've been slightly nervous about pursuing any Over bets on D'Angelo Russell or Austin Reaves in this series because their minutes could be reduced due to their perimeter defense. It's already challenging enough to slow Nikola Jokic down, and it becomes even more difficult when your defense is weak at the point of attack against Jamal Murray. 

When the Los Angeles Lakers won Game 4, Russell played 40 minutes while Reaves only played 29. This boosts my confidence in Russell's playing time, which is why I'm focusing on his assists prop. Not only did Russell play 40 minutes with Reaves spending more time on the bench, but the Lakers also won. After eleven losses in a row to the Denver Nuggets, Russell played 40 minutes and had the highest plus-minus on the Lakers at +15.

This suggests that if anyone is headed to the bench for defensive reasons, it will be Reaves, but there's also another factor that could help secure Russell's minutes: Murray and Reggie Jackson are both tagged as questionable. If Murray is unable to play, the Lakers might not even seek more perimeter defense, which would benefit Russell's playing time.

Russell only had four assists in Game 4, but those came from 11 potential assists, leading the team. Once again, this occurred in a victory, so why would the Lakers limit Russell's involvement in the offense? I also like the fact that Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is the primary defender on Russell because it encourages him to pass more in the pick-and-roll. Whenever Russell sees Murray guarding him, he becomes more interested in scoring.

Russell is projected for 5.4 assists, which allows us to price the Over 4.5 assists at -152, but it is available at DraftKings at +114.

D'Angelo Russell prop: Over 4.5 assists (+114 at DraftKings)

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Prop bet #2: Giddey gumdrops

Josh Giddey dropped six dimes in 31 minutes on Saturday against the New Orleans Pelicans, and while I don't expect him to see the same minutes again, we have a nice edge on his assists prop.

The 31 minutes were somewhat inflated because Jalen Williams had to briefly leave with an eye injury. It's more realistic to project Giddey in the 24-minute range, which is why I like this prop. We aren't banking on high minutes to establish our edge, just in case the Pelicans already have their eyes on Cancun and don't show up.

With the Pelicans assigning Herb Jones as the primary defender on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and giving a lot of attention to Williams as well, it opens the door for Giddey to collect some potential assists. Giddey consistently catches the ball against a rotating defense because he is the one person the Pelicans are going to leave open on the perimeter. When this happens, Giddey has options. He can make an additional pass to a better shooter or drive the lane and create for someone else.

The Thunder are also using Giddey as the screener in the pick-and-roll for SGA and Williams. If the Pelicans blitz either of the Thunder guards, they can then find Giddey, and he can create for his teammates with one less defensive player in the picture.

Giddey is projected for 4.7 assists, allowing us to price the Over 3.5 assists at -206, but it is available at FanDuel at -130. Based on this projection, this bet shows a positive expected value of 19%.

Josh Giddey prop: Over 3.5 assists (-130 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: Ingram changes gear

I'm not going to lie, buyer beware with this bet on Brandon Ingram. The Pelicans are down 0-3 to the Oklahoma City Thunder, and who knows if they will even show up. I'd like to think they bring some fight in front of the home fans, just like the Lakers did, but you never know, especially since they are missing Zion Williamson.

That being said, if this game is remotely competitive, I love the price on Ingram's assists prop. The Pelicans need Ingram's offense if they are going to win, but he hasn't been able to shake Lu Dort's defense in this series and has been held below 20 points in all three games.

If you're Ingram, at what point do you flip the script and try to create a little more for your teammates instead of scoring? It's not that he's not creating. He's averaging 8.3 potential assists per game in the series, but Ingram averaged 10.5 in the regular season, and it wasn't uncommon for him to have 12 to 15 in a game.

The best game plan might be to use Ingram more as a facilitator than a scorer. Some of the best offense I saw from the Pelicans during the regular season was when Ingram was on the ball and creating for others.

Ingram's total has also dropped from 5.5 to 4.5 because he has gone Under the number in all three games, which is also a significant factor as to why we are hitting the button here.

Ingram is projected to have 5.5 assists. This allows us to price the Over 4.5 assists at -176, but it is available at DraftKings at -108.

Brandon Ingram prop: Over 4.5 assists (-108 at DraftKings)