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Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Prediction 5-16-24 Picks

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Denver Nuggets (64-28) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (62-29)
May 16, 2024 8:30 pm EDT
The Line: Minnesota Timberwolves -2.5; Over/Under: +205.5
(Get latest betting odds)

The Denver Nuggets and the Minnesota Timberwolves duke it out at the Target Center in a crucial NBA Game 6 on Thursday night. Here’s a Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Prediction.

Denver Nuggets

The Denver Nuggets will now be aiming to finish the job with a fourth straight victory after making light work of the Timberwolves in a 112-97 win in Game 3 on Tuesday. Nikola Jokic led the team with 40 points, seven rebounds and 13 assists on 15 of 22 shooting, Aaron Gordon added 18 points with 10 rebounds and five assists while Jamal Murray and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope each scored 16 points. As a team, the Nuggets shot 55 percent from the field and nine of 19 from the 3-point line as they played great defense to keep the Timberwolves in check with 18 points in the second quarter, before they exploded for 38 points in the third quarter to lead by as many as 18 points at one stage. Michael Porter Jr had a rough Game as he scored just six points on two of 10 shooting, but the the Nuggets got a spark from Gordon and also Christian Braun who chipped in with 10 points off the bench.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Meanwhile, the Minnesota Timberwolves are now playing to just stay alive after getting routed by the Nuggets in an ugly loss in Game 5. Karl-Anthony Towns led the team with 23 points, six rebounds and four assists, Rudy Gobert tallied 18 points with 11 rebounds and two blocks on seven of seven shooting, while Nickeil Alexander-Walker chipped in with 14 points and five assists. As a team, the Timberwolves shot 48 percent from the field and eight of 26 from the 3-point line as they struggled to find their flow on offense from the start and they just didn’t get enough from their leading scorer Anthony Edwards who finished with just 18 points after a slow start to the Game.

Why the Denver Nuggets will win

  • The Nuggets have won each of their last six playoff games as road underdogs.
  • The Timberwolves have lost three of their last four games as home favorites against Northwest Division opponents.
  • The Nuggets have covered the spread in each of their last six playoff games as underdogs.
  • The Timberwolves have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games as home favorites against Northwest Division opponents.

Minnesota Timberwolves Player Facts

  • Rudy Gobert ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for rebounds per game (12.9) this season.
  • Karl-Anthony Towns ranks 2nd amongst qualified Centers for three-pointers made Per Game (2.2) this season.

Denver Nuggets Player Facts

  • Nikola Jokic is one of only two qualified players in the league averaging at least 25.0 points, 10.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists this season.
  • Justin Holiday ranks 4th amongst qualified players for assist:turnover ratio (4.8) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Timberwolves rank 1st in the league for opponent points per game this season (106.5).
  • The Timberwolves rank 1st in the league for opponent field goal percentage this season (45.0%).
  • The Nuggets rank 30th in the league for three-point field goal attempts per game this season (31.2).
  • The Nuggets rank 1st in the league for Q1 opponent points per game this season (26.5).

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Prediction

The Nuggets could be a little shorthanded here with Jamal Murray listed as questionable once again, while the Timberwolves could again be missing Mike Conley, who is questionable with an Achilles injury. The Nuggets didn’t look like themselves in the first two losses to start the series, but they are now firmly in the driver’s seat after reeling off three straight wins. The pressure is now on the Timberwolves to come up with their best performance in a battle for their season, and they are going to need players like Naz Reid and Anthony Edwards to have big games. The Nuggets seem to be getting stronger as the series wears on, so I am looking at the Nuggets to finish off the series with a win as the slight underdog here.

Peter Tran's Free Pick: Denver +2.5

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