Best NBA player prop bets for today 5/12: Knicks lean heavily on Brunson

The ESPN double-header will see 2 more teams fighting to keep their seasons alive. The New York Knicks will be Traveling to take on the Miami Heat to try and force a Game 7 in New York. They will be up against Jimmy Butler, who thrives under pressure. It will be no easy task. That will be followed by the Golden State Warriors visit to take on the Los Angeles Lakers. The visitors have struggled away from home all season but will need to turn that around here to stave off elimination.

You can check out our NBA picks on the side and total for today’s games, but for now let’s dive into my favorite NBA player prop bets for tonight.

Jalen Brunson over 27.5 points (-115)

With the Knicks on the brink of elimination, Tom Thibodeau leaned heavily on Jalen Brunson. The guard played all 48 minutes, delivering a 38-point performance in the process. With the visitors trying to force a Game 7 tonight, he should be expected to play a similar role. He has had success scoring the ball against the Heat, managing 29 points per Game. He has scored 30 or more in 3 of his last 4 Games. Gabe Vincent lacks the physical profile to make life difficult for the Knicks guard. He should therefore have continued success getting to the high post and working from there. With the role and minutes, he looks bound to play, I expect him to at least reach the 30-point mark again.

Gabe Vincent over 3.5 assists (-130)

Gabe Vincent has become a consistent playmaker for the Miami Heat. He has managed to record 4 or more assists in each of his last 7 Games. That includes in every single one in this series against the Knicks. With a keen shot blocker in the paint for tonight’s visitors in Mitchell Robinson, Vincent will be encouraged to dish the ball out on his drives to the rim.

With his counterpart in Jalen Brunson playing a staggering amount of minutes, I expect the Heat to turn to Vincent to make him work on the defensive end. Forcing him to fight over screens in pick and role situations could help limit the guards effectiveness on the other end of the floor. The Heat have been breaking down the Knicks with ball movement, ranking 2nd in assist percentage over the last 5 games. Look for Vincent to be a key cog in that system here.

Draymond Green over 7.5 rebounds (-125)

Draymond Green has been playing his role as the small ball center perfectly for the Warriors. He has recorded double digit rebounds in 3 of his last 4 games. Considering the Warriors are coming off a dominant 15-point win, do not expect his role to change tonight. Look for him to be matched up against Anthony Davis once more. The Lakers center has been doing all his work inside the paint this series. He has having not attempted a 3-pointer since Game 1. Look for that to continue here. With the pair battling close to the rim, Green should be expected to track down a fair few rebounds tonight. With the Lakers giving up more offensive rebounds per game than any other remaining playoff team this post season, the Warriors man could pad his stats on that end of the floor too.

Gary Payton II over 9.5 points (+104)

Gary Payton II has been carving himself a bigger role against the Lakers. He has seen his minutes increase in 4 consecutive Games, moving into the starting lineup in the last 2. He has rewarded Steve Kerr with 13 and 15-point performances in the last 2 Games. With him likely pushing close to 30 minutes of playing time here, he should be well positioned to score at least 10 once more. The Lakers will be looking to force the ball away from Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, making someone else on their roster to beat them. Payton II is making a staggering 70.4% of his field goal attempts this series. The visitors tonight will not mind the ball ending up in his hands. His recent efficiency is hard to ignore here. Back the over on this line.

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