Best MLB props for today, 7/4: 4th of July fireworks in Cleveland

Baseball on the 4th of July is one of the best combinations known to man, and today’s full 15-game slate should provide plenty of fireworks. With weather warming up, so are the bats, and today’s featured play is centered around backing the best offense in baseball. Let’s dive in!

Atlanta Braves first 5 innings team total over 2.5 (+100)

Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -125 odds.

Guardians’ rookie pitcher Gavin Williams garnered a ton of respect from the books yesterday with Atlanta’s first 5 inning team total being set at 2.5 with -110 odds to the over. While he pitched well, 3 home runs resulted in 4 Atlanta runs and the F5 TT cashed easily. Now Atlanta faces Shane Bieber, the 2020 AL Cy Young winner. While Bieber is currently a better pitcher than Williams, the total should have never been set at 2.5 yesterday, and in my opinion, they should not be even money today. Atlanta has surpassed this mark in 13 of their last 16 chances against right-handed starting pitchers. Since June 1 against right-handed pitching the Braves rank 1st in wOBA (.401), ISO (.275), AVG (.306), OPS (.951), hard-hit rate (40.8%), HR/FB% (24.9%), and wRC+ at 151. The top 5 batters in their normal batting order made the all-star team, as did Orlando Arcia at shortstop. Marcell Ozuna and Eddie Rosario have combined for 31 home runs, typically batting 6th and 7th, and Michael Harris II is easily the league’s best 9 hitter, winning last season’s NL ROY award and crushing 2 home runs in last night’s Game alone.

While the Braves lineup is fearsome, Bieber is less feared than his former self. The once dominant strikeout artist has career-low strikeout numbers across the board. Part of what makes Atlanta so lethal is not only do they have immense power, but they make contact at am alarmingly high rate. Since June 1 they have the league’s lowest K% against RHP while recording the 10th highest zone contact rate. The 9th highest walk rate and league’s lowest CSW% during that span are other marks they hold. Bieber not only is allowing more contact, but the contact he is allowing has been hard. He ranks just 10th percentile in MLB with a 46.7% hard-hit rate and 9th percentile with a 91.4 MPH average exit velocity. His .277 BABIP is even a bit low considering his .302 career average and this season being his worse xBA at .280, a mark ranking 12th percentile. Bieber ranks just 25th percentile in xSLG and 43rd percentile in barrel rate. His 3.48 ERA is shadowed by a 4.69 xERA, 3.98 FIP. 4.01 xFIP, and 4.33 SIERA, all of which are career worse marks.

The right-hander utilizes a diverse pitch mix, using 5 pitches while 3 of them see 22.1% or higher usage. His 4-seam fastball sits 91.3 MPH, down 3.1 MPH from his prime, and opponents are hitting .291 against that pitch with a wOBA of .342. Atlanta ranks 2nd in xBA, and 3rd in both wOBA and ISO against right-handed 4-seam fastballs this season. His next most used pitch is the cutter that has allowed a .300 average and .365 wOBA. Against right-handed cutters Atlanta ranks 6th in xBA, but 1st in both wOBA and ISO. They also grade out well against both his curveball and slider. The weather in Cleveland is also calling for offense with the highest projected boost in overall run scoring according to Ballpark Pal. With temperatures in the mid-80’s the Atlanta bats should find success early and often today.

Tampa Bay Rays first 5 innings ML (-140) (0.75U)

Odds available at BetMGM and DraftKings sportsbooks at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -150 odds.

Zach Eflin will make his first start against the Philadelphia Phillies since leaving them in free agency last season. The right-hander signed Tampa Bay’s largest free agent contract ever and he has lived up to the expectations with a 9-3 record, 3.28 ERA, and 1.03 WHIP. Those surface-level stats indicate a strong performance from Eflin, but his underlying numbers are even better. His 3.25 FIP and 3.36 SIERA are career best marks while his career best 52.6% ground ball rate has certainly helped. Eflin has generated a 65.2% first pitch strike rate this season and an 86th percentile chase rate helps him stay ahead in counts. He rarely walks batters, and yet is able to strike them out, resulting in a 21.2% K-BB%. Eflin ranks 82nd percentile in average exit velocity and 72nd percentile in xBA. Rarely does his command break down, and his high ground ball rate helps him get out of jams when in trouble. Tampa Bay is 8-0 in the first 5 innings when the right-hander takes the mound, winning each game by at least 2 runs. At Tropicana Field Eflin has allowed only 12 runs in 49.2 IP while holding opponents to a .209 batting average. He faces a solid Phillies offense that is in good form, but they are a lineup that struggles with right-handed cutters. They rank 27th in ISO and 22nd in xBA against right-handed cutters this year, and Eflin is throwing that pitch 27.8% of the time this year, up from 15.0% last season.

The Rays offense has been terrific at home this season as well, averaging 4.05 runs per first 5 innings, the 2nd highest mark behind Texas. Tampa Bay has the edge in wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ over Philadelphia against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days as well. They face Aaron Nola today who has struggled mightily when on the road. Nola’s road ERA balloons to 5.34 when away from Philadelphia this season. His last 6 road starts have resulted in 4, 4, 4, 5, 4, and 4 earned runs. Granted, some of those were tough matchups but so is today against Tampa Bay. The Rays lineup is loaded with potential power threats and batters willing to walk as well. The home run ball has been a massive concern for Nola this season, allowing 17 in total with at least 1 allowed in 14 of his 17 starts. Tampa Bay is 2nd in baseball with 131 home runs this season. Nola is unique in the sense he uses his curveball 31.8% of the time, an arsenal high mark. That is his main strikeout offering while the .281 wOBA allowed against it is the lowest among his top 3 pitches. That being said, the Rays rank 9th in ISO, 12th in wOBA, and 3rd in K% against right-handed curveballs this season. I would prefer to avoid the bullpens in this Game and isolate what I find to be an edge on Tampa Bay early in this Game.

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