Best MLB props for today, 6/30: Back Justin Steele, fade Graham Ashcraft

Friday’s are always great, but especially when the MLB slate is loaded with 15 Games to choose from, including 2 daytime Games. The betting market is all over the place this morning with several angles to attack, but I was able to find value in each of the early Games. Let’s dive in, but make sure you also check out our MLB picks for each of today’s matchups.

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Justin Steele (CHC) over 17.5 outs recorded (-121)

Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -135 odds.

While Marcus Stroman has certainly had an excellent season for the Chicago Cubs, Justin Steele is the ace of this pitching staff. The 27-year-old left-hander is in his 2nd season as a full-time starter and has performed at an all-star level. Steele has a 2.62 ERA with a 2.83 FIP to back it up, and his efficiency stands out. With a 63.6% first-pitch strike rate he is able to get ahead in counts early with regularity. Steele is able to draw batters out of the zone with chases 31.8% of the time which ranks in the 79th percentile. His chase contact rate allowed is 3.9% lower than the league average and helps him get ahead 0-2 on batters 32.5% of the time, the 10th-highest mark among qualified arms. He also draws a ton of weak contact from those chases, with his weak contact rate sitting at 8%, over double the league average mark of 3.9%.

Among those previously mentioned qualified pitchers, Steele ranks 8th-lowest with only 3.68 pitches per plate appearance this season. The southpaw is able to win while not generating high strikeout totals, sacrificing swing-and-miss for weak contact. Steele generates a 50% ground-ball rate, his 3rd straight season with a mark that high. This allows him to generate easy outs and potential double plays, especially with the defensive infield he has behind him. His career-best 5.7% BB% has helped his efficiency and in his last start he saw his workload back up to 89 pitches across 6 1-run innings against the Cardinals in London. His previous start went well also with 5 innings of 2-run ball against the Orioles before being pulled at 74 pitches in his first start back from the IL. With a normal pitch count he easily covers this line in that outing.

Today, Steele draws the Cleveland Guardians. Cleveland prefers to face right-handed pitching this season, ranking just 26th in both wOBA and ISO while posting a wRC+ of 86 against southpaw pitching. As a team, they take the 7th-fewest pitches per plate appearance, a product of both their low walk rate and low strikeout rate. They are a free-swinging group, and a group that struggles against left-handed 4-seam fastballs. Against that pitch from that handedness this season they rank 26th in wOBA and 28th in ISO. That is an issue given Steele utilizes his 4-seamer 62.5% of the time. His slider essentially fills the remaining usage with his other 3 offerings combining for 4.3% usage. That slider is filthy for him against either-handedness, holding opponents to a .191 AVG and .235 wOBA. The Cubs’ bullpen is not taxed for this matchup, but Steele has had no struggles the 3rd time through the order this season, holding opponents to a .612 OPS. Steele is over this line in 10/14 starts with 1 of the misses being his first back from the IL, and another being the game he left early before landing on the IL. Look for another strong outing from Chicago’s ace.

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Graham Ashcraft (CIN) under 4.5 strikeouts (-150) (to win 0.75U)

Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing. Playable to -160 odds.

I faded Graham Ashcraft earlier this season in the strikeout department, taking his under 5.5 strikeouts against the Rangers. The right-hander sat down only 3 batters across his 6 innings, the same result he has against San Diego the first time they met this year. Ashcraft really isn’t a high K% arm, generating a 6.36 K/9 across his 33 MLB starts. He has recorded 5 or more strikeouts just 4 times this season across his 14 starts, while staying under 3.5 strikeouts 8 times. Ashcraft generates a 22nd percentile swinging strike rate and his CSW% sits in just the 20th percentile.

Most pitchers with low strikeout rates survive thanks to elite command of the zone. That isn’t the case for Ashcraft, however, as his 56.1% first-pitch strike rate and 9.3% BB% that ranks 36th percentile are both signs of inefficiency and poor command. After tossing 6 or more innings in 5 of his first 6 starts this season, Ashcraft has failed to pass the 5th inning in 7 of his last 8 outings. That includes 3 straight where he didn’t get past 4 innings of work.

Ashcraft generates just a 26.7% chase rate this season, a mark ranking in the 29th percentile. San Diego this month has the league’s lowest chase rate at 27.2%. When they do chase, they have the 8th-highest chase contact rate. They also rank 6th in zone contact rate during that span, and all of this combined has resulted in the 3rd lowest swinging strike rate. They have the 11th lowest CSW% as well. Overall, this season they have the 12th lowest strikeout rate against right-handed sliders, and in the month of June, that falls to the 7th-lowest mark. This is crucial as Ashcraft generates 61.6% of his strikeouts with that pitch.

There is a pathway to victory with this prop even if Ashcraft works 6 innings, but with San Diego’s patience (3rd most P/PA, highest BB% vs RHP), he could see an even shorter workload today, especially given this is his 2nd start back. While his first start back was against Atlanta, he did get shelled. With 10 hits including 3 home runs, and 6 total earned runs against his record, Ashcraft’s return to the mound is not what he had hoped for. His season-long batted ball profile is not impressive either, however, ranking 3rd percentile in xBA with a .462 xSLG and 42.5% hard-hit rate. Pitching in Great American Ballpark with high temperatures against comPetent lineups is often a recipe for a short outing.

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