Best MLB prop bets for today, 6/6: Not buying Bieber

Tuesday’s slate of MLB action is filled to the brim with potential betting angles. With all 30 teams in action, today’s menu of Games is likely to keep fans engaged and entertained. My featured prop for today will take place in the Red Sox at Guardians Game. Don’t forget to also check out all of our MLB predictions for today’s Games. Let’s dive in!

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Shane Bieber (CLE) under 5.5 strikeouts (-128)

Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140. Under 4.5 also playable for 0.5U if getting plus-money odds. 

Shane Bieber’s name continues to garner too much respect in the strikeout markets. The 28-year-old right-hander is dealing with decreased numbers across his strikeout profile this season, and the results are showing. Bieber won the 2020 Cy Young award with a career-best 14.2 K/9, but that mark has plummeted in each of the last 3 seasons. His 12.5 K/9 in 2021 was still an elite mark. Last year that number fell below a strikeout per inning for the first time in his career at 8.9 K/9. Now this season his K/9 is a career-worst 6.4, ranking in the 14th percentile.

Bieber has a career-low 10.1% swinging strike rate this season, down from his 13.8% career-long mark. This is partly due to drawing chases 1.7% less than last season and allowing opponents to connect on those chases 10.1% more often. His 88.6% in zone contact rate allowed sits 6.6% higher than league average and by far a career-high number. Bieber’s 23.1% whiff rate is nowhere near his 40.7% mark made during his peak season. That number sits in just 29th percentile in MLB.

Not only is Bieber allowing more contact to be made, but the contact itself is harder than ever before. Bieber has allowed opponents to record a hard-hit rate of 47.5%, ranking in just the 8th percentile. His 9th-percentile xBA is a result, yet his BABIP is still below his career average number. While his 3.72 ERA is the worst since his rookie season, his 4.14 FIP and 4.90 xERA are far more worrisome signals.

The right-hander is still a solid pitcher in the league but is nowhere near the lethal strikeout artist he used to be. In 12 starts this season Bieber has been held under this 5.5 number 10 times. In fact, he has been held under 4.5 strikeouts in all 10 of those games. Oakland and Detroit are the only teams he has recorded 6 or more punch-outs against. Today, he draws a rematch against the Boston Red Sox. Despite Boston striking out more often of late, they still have the 6th-lowest swinging strike rate and 9th-highest zone contact rate in the last 30 days. They also have the 11th-best chase contact rate on the 8th-lowest chase rate during that span.

Boston has already faced Bieber, keeping him to 4 strikeouts despite 7 innings of work on April 28. Today’s lineup is projected to have the same 9 players as that matchup. Boston will likely stack 7 left-handed bats, and while Bieber does see a 2.8% boost in K% against left-handed batters, that mark is still only 18.3%. With increased familiarity and another 5.5 K line, Bieber’s under makes a lot of sense in this matchup.

Mitch Keller (PIT) over 6.5 strikeouts (-102)

Odds available at Fanduel Sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Still available at -118 odds. Playable to -140. 

I am thrilled to be getting a playable line on Mitch Keller in this matchup. It truly has been a joy watching him grow as a pitcher these last handful of seasons. The 2020 version of Keller made only 5 starts while walking more batters than he struck out. He followed that up in 2021 by ranking bottom 8th percentile in xERA, xBA, and hard-hit rate. After beginning the 2022 season slowly, Mitch was fantastic in his final 15 starts, posting a 3.08 ERA along with upgraded peripherals. Now a new version of the right-hander has emerged from the offseason, and this is a fantastic opportunity to bet on his improved skillset against the Oakland Athletics.

Keller is getting ahead in counts early and often this year. His 65% first pitch strike rate is an 8.2% improvement on last year’s mark and sits 4.2% better than league average. He doesn’t nibble, as 36.3% of his counts begin 0-2, the 3rd highest mark among qualified pitchers behind Joe Ryan and Spencer Strider. Not bad company. Keller’s 10.4% swinging strike rate is respectable overall but is a sizable 1.7% increase from last season. He generates a ton of looking strikes, however, resulting in a 29.9% CSW% which is more than respectable. In fact, Keller pitches result in a looking strike 28.5% of the time which is the 15th highest mark among qualified pitchers. His 40 strikeouts from a looking 3rd strike lead all of baseball and are 11 more than Gerrit Cole who is next closest on the list. While looking strikes can be less dependable than swinging strikes, depending on matchup, Keller’s elite movement and tunneling allow his numbers to make more sense. The Athletics, his opponent tonight, have the 6th most looking strikeouts in MLB.

The 27-year-old added a cutter to his repertoire this offseason, replacing his former slider. He now throws his 4-seam fastball only 24.2% of the time despite that being his most used offering. Keller has a 6-pitch arsenal with 5 pitches being used at least 12.4% of the time and his changeup seeing 4.2% usage, all of which against LHB. His diverse arsenal gives him 5 put away pitches he can use. Oakland struggles to hit right-handed pitching, and their 26.3% strikeout rate ranks 29th in MLB. They rank just 28th in isolated power while Keller ranks 89th percentile in hard-hit rate. In the last 30 days their 29.9% CSW% is the highest mark in the league against RHP.

Keller works deep into games, averaging 25.5 batters faced and 96.3 pitches per start this year. Oakland has also allowed more starting pitchers to reach 6 innings or later than any other team in the league. Outside of potentially Tony Kemp Oakland’s lineup is likely to be filled with potential strikeout targets. This is especially true for someone like Keller who is able to make batters miss from either side of the plate. Mitch has recorded 8 or more strikeouts in each of his last 7 starts and exceeded this 6.5 mark in 10 of 12 starts this season overall.

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