Best MLB prop bet for today 9/18: Backing Tarik Skubal and Sonny Gray | Pickswise

With under two weeks remaining in the 2024 MLB regular season, playoff and award races are heating up as teams and players look to make their final push. Wednesday’s action has brought us a jam-packed slate with all 30 MLB teams in action, including Tarik Skubal and the Tigers facing off against Kansas City, and Sonny Gray and the Cardinals taking on the Pirates. Today’s prop article highlights both of those starting pitchers.

Let’s dive in!

Tarik Skubal (DET) under 1.5 walks allowed + Sonny Gray (STL) 6+ strikeouts recorded (+127)

Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +110 odds. 

Tarik Skubal was the player I bet on in my first ever prop article on this platform, and he was my only preseason pick for the Cy Young award. To say Skubal is one of my favorite players in the league would be an understatement, as the left-hander with the high leg kick is one of the more dominant starting options the league has to offer. Skubal has recorded 214 strikeouts in his 180 innings of work so far this season, maintaining a 2.50 ERA with underlying run prevention metrics that support his success. What has been so impressive is his coMMAnd of the strike zone this year, as Skubal has mastered the ability to limit walks while still generating swing-and-miss. His 4.7% walk rate on the year ranks 94th percentile among MLB pitchers, and he has allowed 1 or 0 walks in 18 of his 29 starts. He has allowed more than 2 walks in just 1 start all year long, issuing 4 free passes against the Yankees on 8/18. Since that outing, however, Skubal hasn’t allowed a single walk in 4 starts spanning a combined 24.2 innings. He now faces a Royals lineup for the 3rd time this season, and while he has allowed 2 walks in the last 2 matchups, I like his chances of controlling the zone in this spot. In the last 30 days Kansas City has the 2nd lowest walk rate against left-handed pitching with the 12th lowest swing rate overall. Expect an aggressive Skubal to perform tonight as he looks to cement his Cy Young award placement and keep the Tigers playoff chances alive.

Sonny Gray has been lights out in his last 3 starts, allowing just 1 earned run in each outing while tossing 6 or more frames in each start. He only managed 4 strikeouts against San Diego but the Padres rarely strikeout to anyone. His last 2 starts have resulted in 7 and 9 strikeouts in more favorable matchups, and I am a fan of his tonight against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Gray has had a good year in the strikeout department, recording 195 punch outs across 160.2 innings of work. He has been consistent with 6 or more strikeouts in 23 of his 27 outings, including 9 against the Pirates in their only matchup so far. Gray’s strikeout production has been strong regardless of venue pitched in, but his performance has been far better at home overall this season. His 2.56 ERA in 88 home innings far outweighs his 5.20 ERA in 72.2 road innings, and his ability to prevent runs at home should help him work deeper into this Game. As for the Pirates, their strikeout rate against right-handed pitching is middle of the pack across the last 30 days, but recent matchups have opened my eyes to fading this team at the moment. They have allowed Alec Marsh (11), Michael Wacha (8), Brady Singer (6), and Andre Pallante (9) to all accrue heightened strikeout totals against them of late, and Gray is by far the best strikeout artist among that group of arms.