In Week 7, things went somewhat according to plan in the National Football League, with the Kansas City Chiefs (+2), Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) and Seattle Seahawks (+3) posting the biggest upsets in terms of the spread. However, it’s unlikely many people were affected in survivor pools with those spreads of 3 or fewer points.
As a matter of fact, only 4 people were eliminated in Week 7 in the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool contest, leaving 61 of the 10,357 players still alive. After a host of crazy upsets and unpredictable outcomes in the first 5 weeks, we’re starting to see some normalcy in October.
Both of our top options came through last weekend in the Washington Commanders and Buffalo Bills. Our No. 1 option, the Commanders, lost starting QB Jayden Daniels to a rib injury early in the game. It appeared storm clouds were forming, but QB Marcus Mariota turned back the clock and helped the Commanders to a 40-7 home blowout of the lowly Carolina Panthers.
The best strategy in the past couple of seasons has been to fade the Panthers. Carolina’s defense is allowing an unseemly 385.7 total yards (ranking 30th), 223.6 passing yards (25th), 162.1 rushing yards (last) and 34.7 points per game (last).
Our 2nd option saw the Bills beat the Tennessee Titans 34-10 in Buffalo. When the Titans jumped out to a 10-0 lead behind new QB Mason Rudolph, there was a little hand wringing going on.
However, the 10-point favored Bills were able to rattle off 34 unanswered points, while QB Josh Allen threw for 323 yards with 2 TDs. Buffalo was an impressive 4-for-6 in the red zone, and new WR Amari Cooper fit right in with 4 catches for 66 yards with a TD grab in his team debut.
Looking at Week 8, there are 8 teams favored by 6 or more points, so there is a wide array of teams to choose from.
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– Games Sunday and ET unless noted
The pick: Baltimore Ravens
Who they play: At Cleveland Browns – 1 p.m. (CBS)
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Wednesday at 5:31 a.m. ET.
- Line: Ravens -9 / Moneyline (ML): Ravens -450 | Browns +350
The Baltimore Ravens (5-2) Travel to meet the Cleveland Browns (1-6) and
This line opened with the Baltimore Ravens (5-2) favored by 8.5 points. It ballooned to 10.5, and now it has leveled off at 9. There is sure to be a ton more movement, too, but in survivor leagues, we’re not terribly concerned with that. A win by any margin gets the job done.
Generally, it’s a good rule of thumb to avoid a road team whenever possible, at least until later in the season when it can be a necessity. Baltimore is the largest road favorite of the season, facing a Cleveland Browns team which doesn’t look very good and is 1-6.
In last week’s 21-14 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, Browns QB Deshaun Watson went down with a season-ending Achilles injury and QB Dorian Thompson-Thompson left with a finger issue. Veteran QB Jameis Winston will apparently get the starting nod in Week 8.
The Ravens are playing on a short week after winning at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 41-31 Monday night, but the dynamic duo of QB Lamar Jackson and RB Derrick Henry has been nearly unstoppable during the team’s 5-game win streak. The offense is hitting on all cylinders, and it might only need 20 points to get the W in Cleveland. The Browns haven’t scored more than 18 points in a game this season and are averaging a mere 15.6 points per game (PPG), which ranks 29th in the league.
Conclusion: BALTIMORE IS MY TOP SURVIVOR PLAY IN WEEK 8.
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No. 2 option: Detroit Lions
Who they play: Home vs. Tennessee Titans – 1 p.m. (CBS)
- Line: Lions -11 / ML: Lions -600 | Titans +425
The Detroit Lions (5-1) are the largest favorite of the season so far, and 1 of 2 double-digit faves on the board in Week 8. We could very well have 3, or even 4, favorites of 10 or more points by kickoff.
The Tennessee Titans (1-5) are terrible, although they showed some signs of life with Rudolph last Sunday. Still, after holding a 10-0 lead in Buffalo, the Titans never scored again, and ended up getting crushed 34-10.
The Tennessee offense has scored more than 17 points only once this season, and that came against a bad Miami Dolphins team playing with a 3rd-string QB — the Titans’ lone win, a 34-12 victory in South Florida.
The Lions have won — and covered — 4 games in a row since a stunning 20-16 setback at home in Week 2 to the Buccaneers as 7.5-point favorites. The Detroit offense is averaging 40.0 PPG in the past 3 games. Tennessee can’t compete with that kind of firepower.
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2024 survivor game log
NO. 1 OPTION
Week 1: LOSS – Patriots 16, Bengals 10
Week 2: LOSS – Falcons 22, Eagles 21
Week 3: LOSS – Panthers 36, Raiders 22
Week 4: WIN – 49ers 30, Patriots 13
Week 5: LOSS – Giants 29, Seahawks 20
Week 6: WIN – Eagles 20, Browns 16
Week 7: WIN – Commanders 40, Panthers 7
NO. 2 OPTION
Week 1: WIN – Saints 47, Panthers 10
Week 2: WIN – Chargers 26, Panthers 3
Week 3: LOSS – Giants 21, Browns 15
Week 4: WIN – Cowboys 20, Giants 15
Week 5: WIN – Commanders 34, Browns 13
Week 6: WIN – Falcons 38, Panthers 20
Week 7: WIN – Bills 34, Titans 10
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