OK. It’s been impossible to pick a winner, just straight up, in the NFL this season. This is the most confounding regular season in recent memory just trying to pick a winner, forget about the spread.
In Week 3 alone, 9 underdogs won outright, including 5 favorites of 5.5 or more points. What’s down is up, and up is down. Teams that look like hot garbage 1 week are world beaters the next.
I know I’m not alone, as in the USA TODAY NFL Survivor Pool, only 244 players remain out of 10,357 players. That means we lost 1,436 players in Week 3, or roughly 13.9% of the entrants.
We were picking on the Carolina Panthers again in Week 3. While they made a QB change to veteran Andy Dalton, they didn’t change out the awful defense. But, perhaps the defense was just more rested and less taxed, with the offense keeping the ball a little longer because Carolina looked like an NFL-caliber team again in a 36-22 beating of the Las Vegas Raiders on the road.
Our 2nd option, the Cleveland Browns, were stunned by the New York Giants at home as 6.5-point favorites. When you’re losing to QB Daniel Jones at home, it’s not a good look. Of course, potential Rookie of the Year WR Malik Nabers had a lot to do with that, hauling in 2 TDs.
At this point, you’re probably wondering why you’re still reading. Our 1st choice is 0-for-3. But, honestly, no one could have predicted all of these upsets. If you’re navigated the waters successfully, we salute you.
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The pick: San Francisco 49ers
Who they play: Home vs. New England Patriots – 4:05 p.m. (FOX)
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Wednesday at 1:43 a.m. ET.
- Line: 49ers -10 / Moneyline (ML): 49ers -550 | Patriots +400
OK, not going to make some outlandish social media wager like a Florida State or Kansas State fan. IYKYK. But, if the Patriots bite me again, I swear …
This pick makes me nervous, even though the 49ers are the largest favorite on the board, and the 1st double-digit favorite of the NFL season. They’re missing RB Christian McCaffrey. They’re missing WR Deebo Samuel. DT Javon Hargrave is done for the season. TE George Kittle missed Week 3, and QB Brock Purdy had an MRI on his back. There is concern.
The 49ers are just not going 1-3, and not losing to the Patriots at home. Perhaps it’s not pretty. But, San Francisco is going to get the job done, or I’ll eat …
Conclusion: SAN FRANCISCO IS MY TOP SURVIVOR PLAY IN WEEK 4.
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No. 2 option: Dallas Cowboys
Who they play: At New York Giants – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. (Prime Video)
- Line: Cowboys -5.5 / ML: Cowboys -250 | Giants +200
The Cowboys were getting routed by the Baltimore Ravens at home, trailing 28-6 before making a furious comeback in the 4th quarter. Dallas ended up losing 28-25, but there are some positive things it can take from the game.
Baltimore’s offense had the defenders for Dallas off balance for most of the game. There were QB runs with Lamar Jackson, a power run game with RB Derrick Henry or a few downfield shots. Dallas never knew what was coming. It’s a short week, but the Cowboys will face a little more traditional of a team, although it will have to contend with Nabers, who toasted the Browns for 2 scores last week in Cleveland.
Dallas has won 6 in a row in the series, and 9 of the past 10 since Sept. 8, 2019. That includes a 40-0 win in the Meadowlands last season, while outscoring New York 89-17 in 2 meetings in 2023.
Others to consider
Houston Texans: Home vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – 1 p.m. (CBS)
- Line: Texans -7.5 / ML: Texas -350 | Jaguars +260
New York Jets: Home vs. Denver Broncos – 1 p.m. (CBS)
- Line: Jets -7.5 / ML: Jets -350 | Broncos +280
2024 survivor game log
NO. 1 OPTION
Week 1: LOSS – Patriots 16, Bengals 10
Week 2: LOSS – Falcons 22, Eagles 21
Week 3: LOSS – Panthers 36, Raiders 22
NO. 2 OPTION
Week 1: WIN – Saints 47, Panthers 10
Week 2: WIN – Chargers 26, Panthers 3
Week 3: LOSS – Giants 21, Browns 15
FOOTBALL NEVER STOPS
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