College Football

Week 5 NCAAF best bets, odds & picks including Boise State & Memphis

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1y ago

Sep 29, 2023 / 3861 Views

Evan Walker

Week 4 was one of the best weekends of college Football in years, including some wild finishes, marquee Games across the Power 5 and Group of 5 landscape alike, plus a couple of unexpected upsets that added to the excitement. Now with last weekend in the rearview mirror, it’s time to get into this Week 5 slate with my weekly best bets column.

I went 3-1 last week to bringing my record to 7-3 since Week 1, including another 3-star winner with Florida State, bringing me to 3-0 for the season on 3-star plays. Let’s keep that momentum going! With kickoff approaching, let’s take a look at my best bets for Week 5 of the college Football season.

Memphis Tigers -2.5 (-110) over Boise State Broncos

I was going to pass on this game at 3.5, I’m a lot more invested in backing Memphis now that it’s come back down to 2.5. This is a poor situational spot for the Broncos, who are coming off a road win in conference play against San Diego State and now have to travel for a weirdly scheduled nonconference game against a Memphis before resuming Mountain West play with a very important stretch against San Jose State, Colorado State, Wyoming and Fresno State. Boise State also needs more consistent play from Taylen Green, who did show flashes of brilliance last week but has still struggled overall under new offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan. The Broncos can’t throw the ball and that won’t get easier against a Memphis defense that is 7th nationally in passing success rate.

The lone advantage for Boise State lies in the running game, but the Broncos won’t be able to exploit that if they fall behind early. Furthermore, the biggest edge I see in this contest is a dynamic and experienced Memphis offense against a Boise State defense that has really struggled after replacing 7 starters from a season ago. This secondary is 118th in PFF coverage grade, the Broncos are 130th in opposing QBR allowed and near the bottom of the country in havoc and preventing explosive plays. That’s not ideal against Seth Henigan and a Memphis offense that loves to pass the ball early and often. San Diego State’s terrible offense just averaged 7 yards per play a week ago, so I don’t see Memphis struggling at all in a game it should be very motivated for. I make the number closer to a touchdown here, so let’s roll with the Tigers at home.

Tulane Green Wave -21 over UAB Blazers (-110)

Odds available at BetRivers Sportsbook at time of publishing.

This number opened at under 20 but I have no issue with laying up to (and even over) 3 touchdowns with Tulane in this spot. UAB has been a team that I’ve successfully faded on multiple occasions this season and I have no problem going back to the well this week. The Blazers have serious issues on both sides of the ball, and that’s already shown this season in convincing losses to Louisiana, Georgia Southern and most recently, Georgia. UAB’s offense is heavily predicated around the short passing game, but that there isn’t much explosiveness to that passing game, as the Blazers sit at 89th in passing success rate and 105th in EPA per pass per CFB-Graphs. Against a stout Tulane defense that is 11th in havoc, 5th in sack rate and 26th in explosive plays allowed, it’s hard to find where the Blazers can score consistently here.

On the other side, the biggest reason why I’m invested in the Green Wave this week is the return of Michael Pratt at quarterback. Arguably the best QB in the Group of 5, Pratt sparkled last weekend against Nichols in his first start since returning from an injury suffered in Week 1. He’ll have the pleasure of going up against a UAB defense that is 128th in passing success rate, 132nd in rushing success rate and 127th in net points per drive this season. Tulane is 17-5 against the spread as a home favorite since the start of the 2019 season and I expect that to continue with a dominant display against a struggling UAB team that is trending in the complete opposite direction.

Be sure to check out our full UAB vs Tulane predictions

Maryland Terrapins -14 over Indiana Hoosiers (-110)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

This game is undeniably a poor spot for Maryland from a situational perspective. After all, this team is undefeated and potentially looking ahead to a showdown in Columbus against Ohio State next week, where the winner would actually have the inside track on the Big Ten East division crown. However, as long as the Terps don’t come out completely flat for this game, I’m confident that they’ll have no trouble winning by margin against an Indiana team that has been completely listless on offense so far. This is also the first true road game for a Hoosiers squad that has scored a combined 17 points in 2 games against Power 5 opponents.

The Hoosiers should’ve lost to Akron last week, as it took a missed chip-shot field goal from the Zips for the game to go into overtime, where Indiana ultimately won in the 2-point conversion portion of the 3rd overtime. There isn’t much that Indiana does well, sitting at 127th in offensive success rate and 123rd in EPA margin on offense. Indiana runs the ball more than the average team, but the Hoosiers aren’t successful in that department either (123rd in EPA per rush). Don’t expect that to improve against a Maryland defensive unit that is 11th in net points per drive, 17th in early downs EPA and 23rd in opponent EPA per pass (CFB-Graphs).

The numbers would suggest that Indiana is going to be behind the chains often in this one, and that doesn’t bode well for a Hoosiers team that is already 130th in 3rd and 4th down success on the season. On the other side, Taulia Tagovailoa has just continued to get better with each season and he now has full command of a Maryland offense that is doing serious damage through the air (11th in passing success rate) and on the ground (7th in EPA per rush). The Terps are 19th in net points per drive and 10th in points per quality possession per College Football Data, so I’d expect them to cash in on their opportunities in Hoosier territory. I’ve got this game around 3 touchdowns so let’s back Maryland and hope the Terps aren’t sleepwalking through this one.

Be sure to check out our full NCAAF Week 5 picks for the biggest games on Saturday