Warriors vs Trail Blazers Prediction, Picks & NBA Odds

Tonight marks the first full slate of the 2024-25 NBA season, and we’ll be treated to an interesting matchup between the new-look Golden State Warriors and the upstart Portland Trail Blazers.

Golden State’s moved on from Klay Thompson on the wing, and my Warriors vs. Trail Blazers predictions expect Portland to keep things close with its young core. Find out more in my NBA picks for October 23. 

Warriors vs Trail Blazers prediction

My best bet
Trail Blazers +6.5 (+112 at FanDuel)

My analysis

The Golden State Warriors had a very up-and-down 2023-24 season and made a bad habit of folding on defense and fumbling away games late.

They let the declining Klay Thompson leave in free agency, hoping to replace him with a combination of sharpshooter Buddy Hield and defensive-minded wing Kyle Anderson — two moves that could very well vault the Warriors right back into relevance.

Golden State finished sixth in shot frequency from 3-point range last season according to Cleaning the Glass, but this matchup with the Portland Trail Blazers could be a tricky one as the young group finished fourth in 3-point defense and rarely allowed teams to shoot from outside. Instead, they struggled to defend at the rim.

The issue is that the Warriors not only chose to shoot at the rim at the lowest clip in the league but lack any sort of weapons down there with Trayce Jackson-Davis still developing and Draymond Green operating as a playmaking center. That should allow Portland to come out and put forth a great showing on defense.

While Golden State did manage to go 4-0 against the Trail Blazers, the team only shot 32.1% from beyond the arc. Portland also showed some promise offensively in the matchup, and it was the interior defense that really let the team down.

It's important to note that Jerami Grant only played in two of those contests, while starting center Deandre Ayton also missed one of the Games. Getting to face a new-look Warriors team with their starting frontcourt intact should work wonders for the Blazers.

I anticipate another close affair between these two teams, particularly with Portland holding home-court advantage. 

Warriors vs Trail Blazers same-game parlay (SGP)

Trail Blazers +6.5

Stephen Curry Under 4.5 made threes

Jerami Grant Over 19.5 points

+387 at FanDuel

Steph Curry attempted a whopping 11 3-pointers per game against Portland last season, but the superstar point guard only made them at a 27.3% clip. That's the lowest against any team he faced over the year, and he'll now likely look to get Hield involved in his Warriors debut. 

I expect less volume here for Curry, and on the flip side, I expect a ton for Grant. The Blazers forward averaged 23.5 points per game against Golden State in two games last season and should be a focal point given the brutal nature of this team’s interior defense. The Warriors allowed 67.2% shooting at the rim last year, while Grant averaged 21 ppg.

Learn how to bet a same-Game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Warriors vs Trail Blazers odds

Warriors vs Trail Blazers live odds

Get the latest Warriors vs Trail Blazers NBA odds.

Warriors vs Trail Blazers opening odds

• Spread: Golden State -3.5 | Portland +3.5
• Moneyline: Golden State -150 | Portland +125
• Over/Under: Over 226.5 | Under 226.5

Warriors vs Trail Blazers spread and Over/Under analysis

• While this line opened up at -3.5, it should be noted that that number was set long ago. The more recent movement has seen this number creep up from around 5.5 to 6.5, even approaching seven at some books.
• The Warriors went a perfect 7-0 in the preseason after making some strong additions.
• The total briefly moved up to 222.5 on Tuesday but has since fallen to 221.
• I’m bullish on the Under considering the Trail Blazers have much to prove offensively but held the Warriors in check on the other end of the floor last season.

Warriors vs Trail Blazers trend

Golden State has hit the game total Under in 26 of its last 40 games (+10.60 Units / 24% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Trail Blazers.

Warriors vs Trail Blazers game info

Warriors vs Trail Blazers latest injuries