In a 3-round welterweight bout on the main card, Santiago Ponzinibbio and Muslim Salikhov meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 59 at Ball Arena in Denver. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 59: Ponzinibbio vs. Salikhov odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims begin 7 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+.
Records: Ponzinibbio (30-7-0) | Salikhov (19-5-0)
Ponzinibbio suffered a 3rd-round KO/TKO loss to Kevin Holland at UFC 287 in his most recent appearance. His previous 2 fights have ended via knockout, although 3 of his 5 bouts have gone the distance. He did top Alex Morono via KO/TKO at UFC 282 Dec. 10, 2022 for his most recent win.
Salikhov has consecutive losses to Randy Brown and Nicolas Dalby, with his last win coming via KO/TKO in Round 3 against Andre Fialho Nov. 19, 2022. He is in the midst of a 1-3 skid across his past 4 fights, with just one of those bouts going the distance.
The Argentine fighter has a 3-inch reach advantage over Salikhov, and the latter is 3 years older at 40. Ponzinibbio has a 4.90-to-3.36 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, while the Russian is much more accurate on those strikes at 53.94% to 42.53%.
Salikhov also does great work getting fighters to the ground, which can wow the judges should it come to that. He has a 1.27 takedown average, and 40.91% takedown accuracy percentage, while Ponzinibbio barely scratches the surface at 0.48 and 30.0% respectively.
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UFC on ESPN 59: Ponzinibbio vs. Salikhov odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:45 p.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Ponzinibbio -185 (bet $185 to win $100) | Salikhov +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -105 | Under -125)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +120 | No -160)
UFC on ESPN 59: Ponzinibbio vs. Salikhov picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Ponzinibbio (-190) will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return on a straight-up wager, and that’s a little too risky on a fighter which has won just once in the past 4 outings since June 5, 2021.
Salikhov (+150) is in the same boat, however, as he has dropped 3 of his past 4 fights, too.
Salikhov has been knocked out in 2 of his past 4 fights, and that’s worth pursuing further. PONZINIBBIO BY KO/TKO OR DQ (+175) on the 7-way line is a solid value given Salikhov’s recent lack of defense.
Over/Under (O/U)
UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-125) is the play in this lead-up to the main event.
We’re calling for Ponzinibbio to the get KO/TKO, and it will likely come in Rounds 1 or 2. If you’re really adventurous, consider PONZINIBBIO IN ROUND 1 (+325) and PONZINIBBIO IN ROUND 2 (+550) in round betting. Yes, you’ll lose one of those ends if he wins in either of the 2 rounds, but you’ll still be well ahead if it happens.
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