In a 3-round featherweight bout on the main card, Timmy Cuamba and Lucas Almeida meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 58 — also known as UFC Vegas 93 — at the UFC’s Apex Facility in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 58: Cuamba vs. Almeida odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims begin at 7 p.m. ET and can be viewed on ESPN2/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+.
Records: Cuamba (8-2-0) | Almeida (14-3-0)
The 25-year-old prospect Cuamba made his UFC debut with a split-decision loss Feb. 10 against Bolaji Oki, so he is still looking for his first company win.
Team Kioshi fighter Almeida has dropped the past 2 fights, with Andre Fili getting knocked out in Round 1 at UFC 296 last time out and a Round 2 submission setback to Pat Sabatini prior to that. Almeida’s most recent win came via KO/TKO against Michael Trizano in June 2022, so it’s been a minute.
Almeida has managed a 5.05 significant strikes landed per minute mark while landing 52.33% of those strikes.
Cuamba ended up with just 2.53 significant strikes landed per minute in his fight against Oki while posting a dismal 35.43% accuracy on those strikes, so he has plenty of work to do.
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UFC on ESPN 58: Cuamba vs. Almeida odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:33 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Cuamba -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Almeida +165 (bet $100 to win $165)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over +110 | Under -145)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +150 | No -210)
UFC on ESPN 58: Cuamba vs. Almeida picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Cuamba (-200) will cost you 2 times your potential return, and that’s too much risk for not enough reward. While Almeida (+165) has dropped 2 fights in a row, and he has just 1 win at the UFC level, Cuamba is still too risky of a play straight up.
Instead, let’s consider CUAMBA BY POINTS (+200) for the chance to double up. We have 2 young fighters in desperate need of a victory. Cuamba cannot afford going 0-2 in his first 2 UFC fights, while Almeida is staring at a 3-bout losing skid and short stay with the company. Both fighters will be desperate, yet they’ll also be playing it rather close to the vest, too.
Over/Under (O/U)
YES (+150): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a strong play at plus-money.
OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (+110) is also a value play if you’d like a little wiggle room in the event of a late Round 3 finish.
Cuamba went the distance in his only UFC fight to date, and he has ended up going the distance 5 times in his past 9 pro bouts across all formats.
Almeida hasn’t gone the distance in 3 fights at the UFC level; he did need 3 rounds against Trizano.
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