In a 5-round flyweight bout in the main event, Alex Perez and Tatsuro Taira meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 58 — also known as UFC Vegas 93 — at the UFC’s Apex Facility in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 58: Perez vs. Tatsuro odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims begin at 7 p.m. ET and can be viewed on ESPN2/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+.
Records: Perez (25-8-0) | Tatsuro (15-0-0)
The 32-year-old Perez fights in his 2nd consecutive main event since battling for the flyweight title against Deiveson Figueiredo at UFC 255. Perez lost that fight in Round 1 via submission, and he has dropped 3 of the past 4 fights total. He did snap a 3-bout skid with a 2nd-round KO/TKO last time out in a main event against Matheus Nicolau in late April.
Taira has won all 5 of his fights since arriving at the UFC level in May 2022. That includes a 2nd-round KO/TKO win over Carlos Hernandez last time out. He has had finishes in 3 of his past 4 fights, with the KO/TKO and 2 submission victories, while posting a unanimous-decision win over Edgar Chairez at UFC 290.
Taira holds a 4.5-inch reach advantage, while Perez has a slight 4.10-to-3.51 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Taira is far more accurate at 74.17% with those strikes, while Perez checks in at just 54.41%. Both are decent on the takedown, posting similar numbers, but Taira has a 2.42 submission average, so it might behoove Perez to avoid going to the mat.
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UFC on ESPN 58: Perez vs. Taira odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:40 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Perez +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Taira -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -145 | Under +110)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +180 | No -250)
UFC on ESPN 58: Perez vs. Taira picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Taira (-200) heads into this one having already cracked the top 15 among flyweights, and he has designs of much bigger things. The prospect is on the fast track, and a win over a previous contender like Perez would be a nice resume builder. However, risking 2 times your potential return is not a recommended wager.
Perez (+165) is a tempting play, as he is ranked No. 5 among the flyweights and still a very dangerous fighter. The key for Perez will be to avoid going to the canvas, where Taira is a beast in the submission game. Perez has an 82% takedown defense, so he’ll do his best to remain upright. He also has a 59% striking defense, and he has the experience to deal Taira his 1st loss at the UFC level.
However, Perez has lost via submission twice in the past 4 fights, while the favorite has 2 wins via submission in the past 4 outings. It might not be quick, but TAIRA BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+100) on the 5-way line at even-money is a strong play.
Over/Under (O/U)
OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (-145) is a strong play. The wily veteran Perez won’t let Taira catch him with a knockout blow, and the only way this fight ends earlier than the middle of Round 3 is if Perez ends up going to the canvas, falling into the dangerous web of Taira, who is tremendous in the rear-naked choke and triangle choke.
Taira has ended up going the distance twice in 5 fights since arriving at the UFC level, while Perez went the distance in early March in a unanimous-decision loss to Muhammad Mokaev.
However, while I think this fight can go past the midway point of Round 3, it isn’t likely to go the distance.
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