In a 5-round flyweight bout on the main card, Matheus Nicolau and Alex Perez meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 55 — also known as UFC Vegas 91 — at the UFC’s Apex Facility in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 55: Nicolau vs. Perez odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET and can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 7 p.m. ET and is on pay-per-view.
Records: Nicolau (19-4-1) | Perez (24-8-0)
Nicolau had won his first 4 fights at the UFC level, including 3 by decision. However, he suffered a 1st-round knockout loss to Brandon Royval last time out to take a little wind out of his sails. Prior to that, he had scored his first UFC finish with a KO/TKO of Matt Schnell in Round 2 in early Dec. 2022.
Nicolau was expected to fight Manel Kape in the main event, with the latter unable to make it to the octagon for a pair of previous bookings, including missing weight badly in January. Kape is reportedly dealing with a rib injury, which is why Perez was subbed in.
Perez takes Kape’s place, and he is looking to halt a 3-bout losing skid. He was on the short end of a unanimous-decision loss to Muhammad Mokaev last time out, and he has 2 submission losses to Alexandre Pantoja and Deiveson Figueiredo prior to that.
Nicolau holds a slight half-inch reach advantage over Perez, while the latter has a 4.12-to-3.66 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Nicolau is more accurate with those strikes at 60.9%, though, while Perez lands at a 55.6% clip. Both are solid in the takedown and grappling departments.
Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.
UFC on ESPN 55: Nicolau vs. Perez odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3 p.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Nicolau -185 (bet $185 to win $100) | Perez +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
- Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -130 | Under +100)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +120 | No -165)
UFC on ESPN 55: Nicolau vs. Perez picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Nicolau (-185) is a little too expensive on the 2-way line, costing nearly 2 times your potential return. That’s too much risk for not enough return. Remember, Nicolau is also coming off his first loss at the UFC level, while Perez (+150) is just 3 fights removed from fighting for the flyweight championship. This is a pretty evenly matched fight, talent-wise.
Instead, let’s get specific. Nicolau has won 3 times by decision, while Perez has ended up going the distance in 3 of his past 9 fights. Perez does his best work on the ground, posting 3 submission wins since Aug. 8, 2017, in Dana White’s Contender Series while also getting tapped twice against Pantoja and Figueiredo. Nicolau can hold his own on the ground, so we’re not likely to see a submission finish.
NICOLAU BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+275) for a chance to nearly triple up is by far the best play on the board.
Over/Under (O/U)
OVER 3.5 ROUNDS (-130) is a strong play, as this one is expected to need the assistance of the judges to determine a winner.
In addition, YES: WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? (+120) at plus-money is too tempting to pass up. Every time the fight goes to the canvas, there will be a lot of butterflies for distance bettors, but it’s the best play.
Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.
