In a 3-round heavyweight bout on the main card, Sergei Pavlovich and Alexander Volkov meet Saturday at UFC on ABC 6 — also known as UFC Saudi Arabia — at Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ABC 6: Pavlovich vs. Volkov odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims begin at noon ET and can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 3 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+.
Records: Pavlovich (18-2-0) | Volkov (37-10-0)
The 32-year-old Pavlovich made his first attempt for the heavyweight championship belt against Tom Aspinall at UFC 295 in mid-November 2023, but he was knocked out in Round 1 by the Englishman. In fact, all 8 of his fights at the UFC level have resulted in KO/TKO, each in Round 1, with 6 victories and 2 setbacks.
The veteran Volkov streaks in with 3 straight victories, all with a finish. He submitted Tai Tuivasa in Round 2 at UFC 293 last time out in Sept. 2023, while posting a pair of Round 1 KO/TKO wins over Alexandr Romanov and Jairzinho Rozenstruik since June 2022. His last loss came against Aspinall in the main event March 19, 2022.
Each of Volkov’s past 4 fights have finished inside the distance, while Pavlovich hasn’t had a decision since winning the belt at FNG: Fight Nights Global 68 against Mikhail Mokhnatkin in June 2017.
Pavlovich holds a 4-inch reach advantage, and the southpaw has an 8.21-to-5.10 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Volkov is much more accurate with those strikes at 62.16%, while Pavlovich lands just 49.51% of those strikes.
Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.
UFC on ABC 6: Pavlovich vs. Volkov odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:22 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Pavlovich -250 (bet $250 to win $100) | Volkov +195 (bet $100 to win $195)
- Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +120 | Under -160)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -225 | No +165)
UFC on ABC 6: Pavlovich vs. Volkov picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Pavlovich (-250) will set you back 2½ times your potential return, and that’s too much risk for not enough reward in this battle of Russian fighters.
The veteran Volkov (+195) is tempting at this price for the chance to nearly double up. However, in this battle of Russian fighters, Pavlovich should use his tremendous reach advantage to push and pull Volkov out at his leisure, picking and choosing his spots to deliver blows, before backing it out and keeping himself from incurring a lot of unnecessary damage.
Let’s get a little more specific. PAVLOVICH IN ROUND 1 (+100) at even-money is a strong play in the round betting department. He hasn’t been past the 4:21 mark of Round 1 in any of his 8 bouts, and that happened in his UFC debut back in Nov. 2018 against veteran Alistair Overeem.
Over/Under (O/U)
UNDER 1.5 ROUNDS (-160) has a rather moderate price tag, but it’s worth playing. Pavlovich has never been to Round 2 at the UFC level, and this bet could see this fight end at 2:30 of Round 2 or earlier and still cash.
No (-450): Will the fight go the distance? is not a recommended play, as you must risk 4½ times your potential return. That’s way too much risk, and you likely won’t be able to fold it into a multi-leg parlay to mitigate the risk.
Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.
