In a 3-round middleweight bout on the main card, Kelvin Gastelum and Daniel Rodriguez meet Saturday at UFC on ABC 6 — also known as UFC Saudi Arabia — at Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ABC 6: Gastelum vs. Rodriguez odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims begin at noon ET and can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 3 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+.
Records: Gastelum (18-9-0) | Rodriguez (17-4-0)
The 32-year-old veteran Gastelum is looking to bounce back after a 3rd-round submission loss to Sean Brady last time out in early December. Prior to that, he had 4 straight unanimous decisions, with 2 wins and 2 losses in those outings. He has ended up going the distance in 7 of his past 9 bouts.
Gastelum fought Israel Adesanya for the middleweight strap in April 2019 at UFC 236, but he lost that fight, and he is now 2-6 in his past 8 fights, and simply looking to hang on with the company.
Rodriguez has dropped his past 2 fights, losing via 1st-round KO/TKO to Ian Machado Garry in May 2023 and suffering a submission loss to Neil Magny in Nov. 2022. His most recent win came via split decision against Li Jingliang at UFC 279, and he has ended up going the distance in 4 of his past 7 events.
The 37-year-old southpaw Rodriguez has an impressive 7.30 significant strikes landed per minute mark, with Gastelum checking in at just 3.55 per minute. Rodriguez is much more accurate, too, landing 51.72% of those strikes, to just 46.44% for Gastelum.
Gastelum has a 0.96-to-0.62 takedown average advantage, while Rodriguez is more accurate in that department, too, posting a 50.00% takedown accuracy percentage, to just 30.65% for the veteran Gastelum. The difference in submission average is rather negligible.
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UFC on ABC 6: Gastelum vs. Rodriguez odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:50 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Gastelum -210 (bet $210 to win $100) | Rodriguez +175 (bet $100 to win $175)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -225 | No +165)
UFC on ABC 6: Gastelum vs. Rodriguez picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Backing Gastelum (-210) straight up will set you back more than 2 times your potential return. That’s risky because it is so expensive, and because the veteran has won just 2 times in the past 8 bouts.
Rodriguez (+175) is tempting at this price based on his tremendous significant strikes advantage, both in frequency and accuracy. However, he has fought a lot of tomato cans in his UFC career, and he has wilted against some of the better comPetition.
With both of these fighters going the distance so frequently, GASTELUM BY DECISION (+100) on the 5-way or 7-way line at even-money is a much better value. Of course, if he scores a KO/TKO or submission win, you do not cash, so be careful.
Over/Under (O/U)
Yes (-225): Will the fight go the distance? sets your back more than 2 times. That’s super expensive, so PASS on that as a straight up wager.
However, it isn’t a bad idea to toss in YES (-225) as part of a multi-leg parlay.
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