In a 3-round flyweight bout on the main card, Charles Johnson and Sumudaerji meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 245 — also known as UFC Vegas 99 and UFC on ESPN+ 103 — at the UFC Apex. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC Fight Night 245: Johnson vs. Sumudaerji odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, and the main card begins at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Records: Johnson (16-6-0) | Sumudaerji (16-6-0)
Johnson has picked up 3 straight victories after a 3-bout losing skid from Feb. 24-Nov. 18, 2023. All 3 of the losses came via decision, too. He has ended up going the distance in 5 of his previous 6 fights. Last time out, he stopped Joshua Van in a 3rd-round KO/TKO on July 13, however.
Sumudaerji has dropped the past 2 bouts, each by submission, including a 1st-round loss to Tim Elliott. His last victory came in a unanimous decision against Zarrukh Adashev Jan. 20, 2021.
The 33-year-old Johnson has a slight 4.83-to-4.64 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, while he is also slightly more accurate than the Chinese southpaw at 56.79% to 55.94%.
In the ground Game, neither is particularly strong, with Johnson posting a 0.38 takedown average, with Sumudaerji checking in at 0.29. The southpaw has a slight 0.59-to-0.50 lead in submission average.
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UFC Fight Night 245: Johnson vs. Sumudaerji odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of UFC odds. Lines last updated at 12:50 p.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Johnson -250 (bet $250 to win $100) | Sumudaerji +195 (bet $100 to win $195)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -185 | No +135)
UFC Fight Night 245: Johnson vs. Sumudaerji picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Johnson (-250) will cost you 2 1/2 times your potential return, and that’s way too expensive straight up. If you were to toss him into a multi-leg parlay, it could be excused.
Instead of playing Johnson on the 2-way line, look to the method of victory. JOHNSON BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+100) at even-money is a much better play. He has ended up needing the help of the judges to determine a winner in 5 of his past 6 fights, and 7 of his 9 outings since joining the UFC.
Over/Under (O/U)
YES: FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE (-185) is a little on the pricey side, but if you’re wavering on the overall winner, and still want action the fight, this is the way to go.
Again, Johnson has ended up going the distance in 7 of his 9 fights at the UFC level, while Sumudaerji has had 2 decisions in the past 5 bouts.
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