In a 5-round welterweight bout in the main event, Gilbert Burns and Sean Brady meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 242 — also known as UFC on ESPN+ 100 and UFC Vegas 97 — at UFC Apex. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 242: Burns vs. Brady odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+ with the main card starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Records: Burns (22-7-0) | Brady (16-1-0)
Burns heads into this one in a bit of a tailspin, as he was knocked out in Round 3 at UFC 299 by Jack Della Maddalena, and he was stopped via unanimous decision against Belal Muhammad at UFC 288. He hasn’t won since a UD victory against Jorge Masvidal at UFC 287 in April 2023.
Burns has ended up going the distance in 4 of his past 6 fights since losing a title bout to Kamaru Usman at UFC 258 in Feb. 2021, going 3-3 in those outings.
For Brady, he bounced back from a KO/TKO loss to Muhammad at UFC 280 with a 3rd-round kimura submission victory against Kelvin Gastelum. He has had 4 stoppages in the past 5 fights, with a lone unanimous-decision victory over Michael Chiesa Nov. 20, 2021, as the only fight to go the distance in the span.
Brady has a slight 1-inch reach advantage, while youth is also on his side at 31, as opposed to 38 years of age for Burns. Brady holds a slight 3.77-to-3.28 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, and he is more accurate with those strikes at 64.78%, to just 56.29% for the Brazilian.
Both are pretty solid on takedowns, as Brady’s average is 3.29, while Burns checks in at 2.24. As far as submission average, Brady is well ahead with a 1.21 mark, to just 0.50 for the veteran.
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UFC Fight Night 242: Burns vs. Brady odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:55 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Burns +154 (bet $100 to win $154) | Brady -184 (bet $184 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over -132 | Under +104)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -116 | No -110)
UFC Fight Night 242: Burns vs. Brady picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Brady (-184) is a little on the expensive side, costing nearly 2 times your potential return. That’s way too much risk for not nearly enough reward, so let’s get a little more specific.
The favorite is an absolute beast of a wrestler, and if he can get Burns (+154) to the canvas, it won’t end well for the 38-year-old.
Let’s back BRADY BY SUBMISSION (+1000) on the 7-way method of victory line for a chance to multiply our wagers by 10 times. Taking BRADY BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+225) on the 5-way line gives you a few more avenues to a winning ticket, but still at plus-money.
Over/Under (O/U)
NO (-110): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a solid play, as I expect this one to end in a Brady victory and hopefully a submission for a massive payday.
In addition, UNDER 4.5 ROUNDS (+104) is worth a look at plus-money in the event Brady is aggressive early, getting the underdog to the mat quickly.
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