In a 5-round middleweight bout in the main event, Brendan Allen and Chris Curtis meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 240 (also known as UFC on ESPN+ 98 and UFC Vegas 90) at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 240: Allen vs. Curtis odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims begin at 3 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+, while the main card starts at 6 p.m. ET, also on ESPN+.
Records: Allen (23-5-0) | Curtis (31-10-0)
Allen has picked up 6 consecutive victories, with 5 coming via submission. That includes a 3rd-round win against Paul Craig last time out in mid-November in the main event. He also submitted Andre Muniz in a Fight Night main event in Feb. 2023 with another 3rd-round win.
Curtis picked up a split-decision win over Marc-Andre Barriault at UFC 297, bouncing back after a no-contest against Nassourdine Imavov at UFC 289. He has finished inside the distance just once in his past 5 fights, not including the Imavov bout.
Allen is 8 years younger than his counterpart, while Curtis has a slight half-inch reach advantage. Curtis also has a 5.96-to-3.87 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, although “All In” is much more accurate at 60.72% with those strikes, to 52.70% for Curtis.
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UFC Fight Night 240: Allen vs. Curtis
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:20 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Allen -225 (bet $225 to win $100) | Curtis +180 (bet $100 to win $180)
- Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -110 | Under -120)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +150 | No -210)
UFC Fight Night 240: Allen vs. Curtis picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Allen (-225) will cost you a little more than 2 times your potential return, and that’s too risky on the 2-way line. Instead, let’s get a little more specific.
ALLEN BY SUBMISSION (+175) is the way to go, for a chance to nearly double up. He has been a submission machine since arriving at the UFC level, and really, all throughout his pro career. His go-to move is the rear-naked choke or the triangle choke while also scoring a win with a keylock.
Curtis (+180) will have to do everything in his power to avoid going to the canvas, or this thing will be over quickly.
Over/Under (O/U)
UNDER 3.5 ROUNDS (-120) is priced right, and it’s a strong play. He is going to work hard to get Curtis up against the fence as quickly as possible.
Curtis has ended inside the distance just once in the past 5 fights, not including the no contest, but he hasn’t faced a powerful wrestling force of Allen’s caliber.
Look for Allen to get the job done, and don’t be surprised if we see a choke-out in Rounds 1 or 2.
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