In a 5-round light heavyweight championship bout in the co-main event, Alex Pereira and Khalil Rountree Jr. meet Saturday at UFC 307 at Delta Center in Salt Lake City. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims begin at 6:30 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+. The prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET on ESPNews/ESPN+, and the main card begins at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View.
Records: Pereira (11-2-0) | Rountree Jr. (14-5-0)
The light heavyweight champion Pereira secured the strap at UFC 303 with his 2nd straight title defense last time out at UFC 303 against Jiri Prochazka. He originally plucked the belt from Prochazka at UFC 295, defended it at UFC 300 against Jamahal Hill, and then won the rematch with the Czechia-born fighter last time out.
Each of his past 3 victories have been via KO/TKO, with both wins over Prochazka coming in Round 2. He has had just one fight go the distance, a split-decision win over Jan Blachowicz at UFC 291, in the past 7 outings.
Rountree has won 5 straight fights to position himself for this title shot. He has picked up 4 victories via KO/TKO, with a split-decision win over Dustin Jacoby as the only exception during the span.
The champ takes the walk holding a 2 1/2-inch advantage over Rountree, while holding a 5.23-to-3.84 significant strikes landed per minute advantage over the southpaw. Pereira is super accurate with a 69.96% significant strikes accuracy percentage, and he has a slight 0.35-to-0.13 submission average lead.
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UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of UFC odds. Lines last updated at 1 p.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Pereira -450 (bet $450 to win $100) | Rountree Jr. +340 (bet $100 to win $340)
- Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -125 | Under -105)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +550 | No -1200)
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Pereira (-450) is a stud, and a punching machine, who is fully expected to get the job done and keep his strap. However, betting his straight up will cost you 4 1/2 times your potential return, and that’s way too much risk for not nearly enough reward.
Even as part of a multi-leg parlay, including Pereira sucks all of your value out of your ticket.
Instead, let’s get more specific. It’s hard to ignore the fact Pereira has 6 KO/TKOs in the past 7 bouts since UFC 276 when he dropped Sean Strickland in Round 1. However, even taking Pereira via KO/TKO or DQ on the 7-way line forces you to risk 4 times your potential return, and that’s too much.
Let’s go to round betting, taking PEREIRA IN ROUND 2 (+400) and PEREIRA IN ROUND 3 (+550) in a 2-round block. Yes, if he gets the win in Rounds 2 or 3, you’d lose one end, but you’d still be well ahead, too.
Over/Under (O/U)
No (-1200): Will the fight go the distance? is way too costly. It should go without saying that betting such a big number is not a good long-term betting strategy.
As far as total rounds, OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-125) is worth a roll of the dice. We just need Pereira to win in the 2nd half of Round 2 or in Round 3 to make the round block betting above make sense, too.
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