In a 3-round light heavyweight bout on the main card, Anthony Smith and Roman Dolidze meet Saturday at UFC 303 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 303: Smith vs. Dolidze odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+. The prelims begin 8 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.
Records: Smith (38-19-0) | Dolidze (12-3-0)
Smith picked up a 1st-round submission victory last time out at UFC 301 against Vitor Petrino. Despite the win, he has still lost 3 of his past 5 bouts.
Smith has ended up going the distance just twice in the past 8 events, with 3 submission wins, 2 KO/TKO losses, a split-decision win, a unanimous-decision loss and a TKO (doctor’s stoppage) win against Jimmy Crute at UFC 261.
The Georgian fighter Dolidze has lost back-to-back fights via decision to Nassourdine Imavov and Marvin Vettori. Prior to that he had 3 KO/TKO victories.
Both fighters are 35 years old, and each combatant has a 76-inch reach and orthodox stance. Smith holds a slight 3.23-to-2.62 significant strikes landed per minute advantage while also being slightly more accurate at 51.93%, to just 49.42% for Dolidze.
In addition, Dolidze does better work on the ground, posting a 1.30 takedown average and 40.91% takedown accuracy percentage, with a 1.30 submission average.
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UFC 303: Smith vs. Dolidze odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:15 p.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Smith +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Dolidze -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -115 | Under -115)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +110 | No -150)
UFC 303: Smith vs. Dolidze picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
DOLIDZE (-140) is a solid play in this main card bout. Smith (+115) has been a little inconsistent lately, and he has suffered 5 losses in 10 bouts since May 2020. In 3 of those bouts, Smith was dropped via KO/TKO.
On the flip side, Dolidze is a knockout machine, topping Kyle Daukaus, Phil Hawes and Jack Hermansson via KO/TKO in 3 straight fights from June-December 2022.
Dolidze isn’t a bad play on the 2-way line straight up, but if you’re a little more adventurous, taking DOLIDZE BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+175) for the method of victory is certainly worth a roll of the dice, too, given the Georgian’s success via knockout.
Over/Under (O/U)
UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-115) is a strong play, as we’re calling the KO/TKO finish. Dolidze has ended up going past the midway point of Round 2 in 3 straight fights, so there is some risk here. In addition, Smith has ended up going the distance in each of his past 2 bouts.
However, Smith’s defense isn’t great at times, and Dolidze can end things quickly.
Without declaring a winner, you could also select the exact round the fight will end. ROUND 1 (+275) and ROUND 2 (+350) are good plays. If the fight ends in either round, you obviously lose one end, but you’re still ahead.
If you’re a little more conservative, NO (-150): WILL FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? could be a strong play, too.
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