In a 5-round light heavyweight bout in the main event, Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka meet Saturday at UFC 303 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+. The prelims begin 8 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.
Records: Pereira (10-2-0) | Prochazka (30-4-1)
We’ve been here before. These 2 fighters met at UFC 295, with Pereira taking Prochazka’s belt with a KO/TKO late in Round 2. Prochazka had just won the strap at UFC 275 against Glover Teixeira with a 5th-round submission win.
Prochazka bounced back from the disappointment of his 1st loss to Pereira, knocking out Aleksandar Rakic at UFC 300 in Round 2 to get a little bit of his swagger back.
Pereira successfully defended his belt at UFC 300 by breezing past Jamahal Hill with a 1st-round knockout at 3:14. He has won 3 straight fights, including a split-decision win over Jan Blachowicz, since he lost his title the first time to Israel Adesanya at UFC 287.
Prochazka is 5 years younger, and he has a slight 1-inch reach advantage, while Pereira has the slight 1-inch height advantage.
Prochazka has a slight 5.75-to-5.10 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, although the champ Pereira is far more accurate at 69.21% on those strikes, with Prochazka checking in at 59.25%. Prochazka has a slight 0.79-to-0.18 takedown average, too.
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UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:56 p.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Pereira -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Prochazka +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over +125 | Under -165)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +350 | No -600)
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
PROCHAZKA (+130) is a solid play as the slight underdog in this light heavyweight title bout.
I can see the trilogy setting up here. These are 2 fighters who are rather evenly matched, and both are championship caliber. These 2 could potentially meet again for the strap in a decisive 3rd fight around the holidays if Prochazka can, indeed, be victorious.
If the Czechian fighter gets the job done, he’ll likely win via knockout. As such, PROCHAZKA BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+150) at plus-money on the 5-way line is certainly worth a roll of the dice.
Over/Under (O/U)
UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-165) is a little expensive, but it’s the right call in this main event.
Pereira has ended up going the distance just once in the past 6 fights, with 5 of those bouts ending via KO/TKO. He hasn’t found past the midway point of Round 3 in 3 of his past 4 outings.
For Prochazka, he did have that Teixeira fight go into Round 5, but his other 4 fights at the UFC level have ended in Round 2.
No (-600): Will the fight go the distance? is simply way too expensive, costing 6 times your potential return. Even as part of a multi-team parlay, there is no value in it.
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