In a 5-round middleweight bout on the main card, Sean Strickland and Paulo Costa meet Saturday at UFC 302 at the Prudential Center in Newark, N.J. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 302: Strickland vs. Costa odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET and can be viewed or streamed on ESPN+. The prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET and can be viewed or streamed on ESPN2/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View.
Records: Strickland (28-6-0) | Costa (14-3-0)
Strickland was on the short end in a split-decision title bout loss at UFC 297 against Dricus Du Plessis in late January. It was his first title defense after topping Israel Adesanya via unanimous decision at UFC 293 to secure the strap for the first time in his career.
He is still 3-3 in the past 6 fights with a 1-1 mark via KO/TKO, 2 wins via decision, and 2 losses by decision. He hasn’t been involved in a submission since winning his company debut back in March 2014 against Bubba McDaniel at UFC 171.
Costa suffered a unanimous-decision loss to Robert Whittaker at UFC 298, and he has dropped 3 of the past 4 fights.
Since arriving at the UFC level in March 2017, he has 4 wins and a loss via KO/TKO while going 2-2 in 4 decisions. Like his counterpart, Costa hasn’t been involved in a submission since topping Eduardo Ramon at JF: Jungle Fight 87 in May 2016.
Strickland holds a 4-inch reach advantage over Costa. The latter has a slight 6.20-to-5.91 significant strikes landed per minute advantage while he is much more accurate at 59.88%, to just 43.77% on those strikes for Strickland.
However, Strickland does have a 0.85 takedown average and 64.29% takedown accuracy percentage.
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UFC 302: Strickland vs. Costa odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:32 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Strickland -250 (bet $250 to win $100) | Costa +200 (bet $100 to win $200)
- Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -155 | Under +115)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +110 | No -150)
UFC 302: Strickland vs. Costa picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Strickland (-250) is quite expensive straight up, costing you 2½ times your potential return. That’s way too much risk for not nearly enough reward.
Instead, let’s get a little more specific. Strickland has ended up going the distance in 3 of his past 4 fights and 7 of his past 9 bouts since May 2021.
Looking to STRICKLAND BY DECISION (+150) at plus-money is a much stronger play.
Over/Under (O/U)
If you don’t want to declare a winner but want action on the fight, playing DECISION (+110) for the “How Fight Will End” prop is the way to go, or simply the YES (+110): WILL FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? prop.
If you’re a little more on the conservative side and you’d like some wiggle room, take a look at OVER 3.5 ROUNDS (-155). If there is a finish in the 2nd half of Round 4, or into Round 5, you’d still have a winning ticket.
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