In a 3-round middleweight bout on the main card, Kevin Holland and Michal Oleksiejczuk meet Saturday at UFC 302 at the Prudential Center in Newark, N.J. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 302: Holland vs. Oleksiejczuk odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET and can be viewed or streamed on ESPN+. The prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET and can be viewed or streamed on ESPN2/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View.
Records: Holland (25-11-0) | Oleksiejczuk (19-7-0)
Holland heads into this bout with 2 straight losses via decision, falling by unanimous decision to Michael Page at UFC 299 in his most recent fight. He also dropped a split-decision bout against Jack Della Maddalena at Noche UFC in Sept. 2023. Holland’s last victory came when he submitted Michael Chiesa at UFC 291 in July 2023.
Oleksiejczuk suffered a Round 1 submission loss to Michel Pereira at UFC 299, losing in just 61 seconds. He has dropped 2 of his past 3 fights, getting submitted in each of those setbacks.
The favorite, Holland, takes the walk to the octagon while holding a 7-inch reach advantage. While Oleksiejczuk has a slight 5.06-to-4.24 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, Holland is much more accurate on those strikes at 61.31%, to just 55.71% for the Polish challenger.
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UFC 302: Holland vs. Oleksiejczuk odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:47 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Holland -300 (bet $300 to win $100) | Oleksiejczuk +240 (bet $100 to win $240)
- Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -150 | Under +110)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +180 | No -250)
UFC 302: Holland vs. Oleksiejczuk picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Holland (-300) is a little too pricey, costing you 3 times your potential return on the 2-way line. Instead, let’s get a little more specific.
If you simply want to take HOLLAND BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (-125), getting the finish via any method possible, it isn’t a terrible play. However, he tapped Chiesa at UFC 291, while Oleksiejczuk (+240) has lost via submission in his past 2 setbacks.
If you’re a little more adventurous, HOLLAND BY SUBMISSION (+250) on the 7-way method of victory line is a tempting play for the chance to multiply up by 2½ times.
Over/Under (O/U)
No: Will the fight go the distance? (-250) will cost you 2½ times your potential return, which is way too much risk and not nearly enough value.
UNDER 1.5 ROUNDS (+110) at plus-money is a strong play, though. Oleksiejczuk has managed to get out of Round 1 just once in the past 5 fights, a 2nd-round submission loss to Caio Borralho in April 2023.
In Oleksiejczuk’s past 12 fights, he has failed to get to Round 2 on 8 separate occasions.
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