In a 5-round lightweight championship bout in the main event, Islam Makhachev and Dustin Poirier meet Saturday at UFC 302 at the Prudential Center in Newark, N.J. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET and can be viewed or streamed on ESPN+. The prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET and can be viewed or streamed on ESPN2/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View.
Records: Makhachev (25-1-0) | Poirier (30-8-0)
The champ Makhachev topped Charles Oliveira at UFC 280 to secure the strap, and the southpaw beat Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 284 via unanimous decision, then ran it back against Volkanovski at UFC 294 with a resounding Round 1 KO/TKO victory.
Makhachev has posted 13 consecutive victories since a 1st-round KO/TKO loss at UFC 192 against Adriano Martins. In those 13 wins, the champ has 5 wins via unanimous decision, with 3 wins by KO/TKO and 5 victories by way of submission.
For Poirier, he is 35 years old, and the sands of time are running out on his chance to be a champ again. The last time he held the strap was April 2019, when he took it from Max Holloway at UFC 236, then lost to Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 242 in Sept. 2019.
Oh, and Nurmagomedov is back in Makhachev’s corner for this title defense. The 2 fighters were reportedly childhood friends, as well as teaMMAtes, while Nurmagomedov is also considered a mentor. He hasn’t cornered for Makhachev since Oct. 2022 at UFC 280, a submission win over Oliveira.
Poirier holds a 1.5-inch reach advantage over Makhachev, and he has an overwhelming 5.46-to-2.46 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Makhachev is way more accurate on those strikes, however, landing at a 72.44% rate, to just 55.15% for Poirier.
Makhachev has managed a 3.17-to-1.33 takedown average advantage, too, while posting a 60.78% takedown accuracy percentage.
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UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:10 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Makhachev -550 (bet $550 to win $100) | Poirier +400 (bet $100 to win $400)
- Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -160 | Under +120)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +400 | No -650)
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
POIRIER (+400) is worth a roll of the dice for the opportunity to potentially multiply your initial wager by more than 4 times.
The Louisiana native faces long odds, but seeing his nemesis Nurmagomedov in the corner of his opponent could fuel Poirier’s fire. It’s now or never for Poirier, as a loss here likely means the 35-year-old won’t have a chance at a title again in his career.
Makhachev hasn’t lost since 2015, so it obviously isn’t going to be easy. But backing Poirier is the way to go.
Over/Under (O/U)
No matter the winner, OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-160) is the play. We’re not going to have a quick Makhachev fight like we’re accustomed to seeing. He has not made it Round 2 in 3 of his previous 5 bouts.
However, Poirier is a veteran who knows how to last. He has made it past the halfway point of Round 2 in 3 of his past 4 fights.
You can’t play No (-650): Will the fight go the distance?, costing you 6½ times your potential return.
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