In a 5-round flyweight championship bout in the main event, Alexandre Pantoja and Steve Erceg meet Saturday at UFC 301 at Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET and can be viewed on ESPN+. The prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET and can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET and is on pay-per-view.
Records: Pantoja (27-5-0) | Erceg (12-1-0)
Pantoja won the flyweight strap at UFC 290 with a split-decision victory over Brandon Moreno, and he posted a unanimous-decision win over Brandon Royval at UFC 296 in his 1st title defense. He has picked up 5 consecutive victories since his last loss to Askar Askarov in July 2020 on Fight Island.
Erceg has been fast-tracked for a title shot.
The Aussie flyweight has won 3 straight fights since making his company debut at UFC 289 with a unanimous-decision win over David Dvorak. He stopped Alessando Costa via unanimous decision, and he picked up a 2nd-round KO/TKO over Matt Schnell last time out in early March. Now, Erceg gets a chance at his 1st main event.
Pantoja gives up a half-inch in reach, and Erceg has a slightly better significant strikes landed per minute at 4.57-to-4.32.
However, Pantoja has a 53.70% significant strikes accuracy percentage, a 2.20 takedown average and 48.08% takedown accuracy percentage. He also has a slight 0.97-to-0.85 submission average, in addition to fighting in his native Brazil, where a hostile crowd could overwhelm Erceg.
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UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:30 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Pantoja -185 (bet $185 to win $100) | Erceg +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
- Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -160 | Under +120)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +110 | No -150)
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
PANTOJA (-185) is just a little too expensive for a standalone bet. However, if you include the champ in a multi-fighter parlay, it’s perfectly OK.
Erceg (+150) is a fighter on the rise, but it’s not his time now. This is his 1st main event, and the lights are going to be too bright. He is fighting what is easily his toughest opponent, too. He could potentially be a title holder down the road, but he isn’t going to Brazil and ruining the party of Pantoja in front of his countrymen.
Over/Under (O/U)
OVER 3.5 ROUNDS (-160) is a strong play. While Pantoja is expected to get the job done, he has needed to go the distance and wow the judges with his strikes and takedowns to win and keep his strap. That won’t change against Erceg, even in front of a pro-Pantoja crowd.
YES (+110): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? at plus-money is an even better value. The Brazilian champ has just 2 finishes in the past 6 fights, while Erceg has gone the distance in 2 of his 3 fights at the UFC level.
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