In a 5-round light heavyweight championship bout in the main event, Alex Pereira and Jamahal Hill meet Saturday at UFC 300 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+. The prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, and is on pay-per-view.
Records: Pereira (9-2-0) | Hill (12-1-0)
The former middleweight and current light heavyweight champion Pereira puts his strap on the line. Hill is trying to get his title back after having to vacate his crown after suffering a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his knee playing basketball between fights. As such, this will be Hill’s first fight since Jan. 2023.
Pereira scored the light heavyweight belt from Jiri Prochazka via KO/TKO in Round 2 at UFC 295. That followed up a split-decision win over Jan Blachowicz at UFC 291. Since arriving at the UFC level, Pereira has won 6 of his 7 bouts, with just 2 fights going the distance.
Hill hasn’t fought since topping Glover Teixeira at UFC 283 to claim the light heavyweight title, but he was forced to vacate due to the ACL issue. He enters on a 4-bout win streak, with 3 KO/TKO victories in the span, including a pair of Round 1 knockouts.
The southpaw Hill holds a 7.31-to-5.00 significant strikes landed per minute, although Pereira is much more accurate on those strikes at 68.82%, to just 56.79% for Hill.
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UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1 p.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Pereira -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Hill +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -190 | Under +145)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +275 | No -450)
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
PEREIRA (-135) is a good play straight up on the 2-way line. Hill (+110) was the champ after his last fight, but he had to vacate his title. Now, he has had a 14-plus month hiatus, and you have to wonder about his cardio, especially trying to hold up against a champion in a 5-round fight.
The southpaw Hill is a punching machine, and the danger of a knockout is very real. But Pereira is much more accurate, he can wrestle if he has to, and he’ll get the job done.
As far as the method of victory, PEREIRA BY KO/TKO OR DQ (+125) is a solid value at plus-money.
Over/Under (O/U)
Over 1.5 (-190) is a little too expensive, costing you nearly 2 times your potential return. That’s too much risk, and not nearly enough reward.
In addition, No (-450): Will the fight go the distance? will cost 4 1/2 times your potential return. That’s a crazy amount of risk, even if it is likely the judges won’t be involved in deciding a winner.
PASS, and concentrate on the 2-way line and method of victory.
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