UFC 291 Picks, Predictions and Best Bets - Poirier vs. Gaethje

UFC 291 takes place on Saturday at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. This card features a lightweight fight between Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje as the Main Event.

We are sharing our UFC 291 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC 291 predictions for picks on every Main Card and Preliminary Card fight. Let’s get into our best bets for Saturday’s card.

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UFC 291 Main Card best bets

Jan Blanchowicz ML over Alex Pereira (-110)

Jan Blachowicz comes into this fight with an MMA record of 29-9-1. He is 12-6-1 in the UFC, most recently drawing with Magomed Ankalaev back in December of 2022. Blachowicz is averaging 3.41 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 49%. He is absorbing 2.81 strikes and has as striking defense of 54%. His grappling is decent, averaging 0.97 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 53% and a takedown defense of 68%.

This one of the most even fights on the card, but Blachowicz looks to be the right side. While he does not have the edge in striking, he absorbs less strikes and has decent grappling. For that reason, backing Blachowicz will be our play.

Michel Pereira ML over Stephen Thompson (+130)

Michael Pereira comes into this fight with an MMA record of 28-11. He is 6-2 in the UFC, most recently beating Santiago Ponzinibbio by split decision back in May of 2022. Pereira is averaging 5.09 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 54%. He is absorbing 3.78 strikes and has a striking defense of 58%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 1.58 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Pereira has a takedown accuracy of 55% and a takedown defense of 94%.

Stephen Thompson is the medium-sized favorite in this fight, but Pereira has been more consistent in the UFC as of recently. He is 5-0 in his last 5 UFC fights, and has the edge in striking and grappling. For that reason, backing Pereira will be our play.

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Tony Ferguson vs Bobby Green – Fight to go the Distance – No (-110)

Bobby Green is a heavy favorite in this fight, and a big reason for that is Tony Ferguson has been wildly inconsistent as of late. Ferguson is 0-5 in his last 5 UFC fights. The more likely result is that this fight will end inside the distance. Green has seen 3 of his last 4 UFC fights end inside the distance, while the same is true for each of Ferguson’s last 2 UFC fights. For that reason, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be our play.

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