Thunder vs Mavs Prediction, Picks & Odds - Game 6

The Dallas Mavericks are just one win away from making their second Western Conference Finals in three years. The Oklahoma City Thunder’s season, meanwhile, is hanging by a thread as they hope to pull off an NBA odds upset to force Game 7 at home.

My NBA picks and Thunder vs. Mavs predictions take stock of how Dallas has neutralized OKC’s offense and why it’s likely to prove decisive again on Saturday night.

Thunder vs Mavericks prediction

My best bet
Mavericks -3.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

My analysis

Per Cleaning the Glass, the Oklahoma City Thunder finished the regular season as the league’s third-best offense, behind only the pair of historically great offenses put out by the Boston Celtics and the Indiana Pacers.

But the Dallas Mavericks have knocked the Thunder off kilter in this series, dropping their regular season offensive rating of 119.5 all the way to 111.7, about the difference between elite and this year's Washington Wizards.

For a team known mostly for its offensive superstar talent in Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, that is awfully impressive. I expect it to continue in Game 6 as well, carrying the win and cover for Dallas.

There were warning signs this was coming. The Mavericks were the No. 1 defense in the Association for the final 15 games of the regular season. 

But it was fair to wonder just how meaningful that number was. March and April basketball are famous for their anomalous performances (remember when Jalen Green was briefly the best shooter on the planet?), and teams had little time to adapt to Dallas’ new alignment.

So, going against the No.3 offense in the NBA, spearheaded by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and consistent five-out spacing, I was among those who thought Dallas would be put in rotation and beaten.

Instead, the Thunder have crumbled against Dallas' defense for five straight Games. The secret to their success against the Thunder is devilishly simple.

The Mavs play a high-caliber rim protector all 48 minutes between Daniel Gafford and Derrick Lively. But they don’t just share minutes, they basically play like hell in 4-5 minute spurts, then get swapped out one for the other, over and over until whoever is playing best gets to close down the stretch of the fourth quarter.

This allows Gafford and Lively to play with an unmatched intensity during their on-court stints, and that energy has been critical to tilting the series in the Mavericks’ favor.

But it’s not just that the Mavericks are playing two quality centers this way, it’s the way they’ve deployed them tactically. The Mavs centers are simply parked around the rim all Game long, even unbothered by earning the occasional three-second violation for their trouble.

It’s completely wiped out the Thunder’s efficiency and productivity in the restricted area, forcing OKC to make a living on tough midrange jumpers and outside looks.

Simply refusing to be drawn into any action outside the paint has snuffed out the drive-and-kick game for OKC, which is the foundation of its offense. Instead, Oklahoma is taking a ton of somewhat-contested threes, rather than the wide-open ones its offense typically generates. 

And many of the threes the Thunder are taking are by questionable shooters or ones whose confidence has been thoroughly rattled over the course of this series. All of Chet Holmgren (25%), Jalen Williams (31.3%), Josh Giddey (21.4%), and Aaron Wiggins (30.8%) have struggled, allowing the Mavericks to further shrink the court as the series has gone on.

At this stage in the series, I don’t think the Thunder have any more cards to play. While there are ways OKC could win this game, none of them are nearly as reliable and battle-tested as the Dallas defense.

Thunder vs Mavericks same-game parlay (SGP)

Mavericks -3.5

Thunder team total Under 103.5

PJ Washington Over 7.5 rebounds

+525 at DraftKings

For as good as the Dallas defense has been, the Thunder deserve significant credit as well. Even though he’s struggled with his shot, Holmgren has been arguably the best defender in the playoffs and OKC has done a great job collectively slowing Luka and Kyrie and forcing others to beat them.

Unfortunately for the Thunder, the others generally have, with PJ Washington coming up huge in multiple key stretches this series. He’s not just hitting outside shots and finishing at the rim though, he’s poking at OKC’s weakness on the glass.

PJ has three games in the series with 10 or more rebounds already, so adding this leg at plus money has strong value.

Learn how to bet a same-Game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Thunder vs Mavericks odds

Thunder vs Mavericks live odds

Get the latest Thunder vs Mavericks NBA playoff odds for Game 6.

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Thunder vs Mavericks opening odds

• Spread: Oklahoma City +4 (-102) | Dallas -4 (-108)
• Moneyline: Oklahoma City +157 | Dallas -175
• Over/Under: Over 221 (-106) | Under 221 (-106)

Thunder vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis

• The Mavericks opened as -4.5 point favorites, and that has fallen slightly to between -4 and -3.5 at most sportsbooks.
  
  
• Dallas is 7-4 against the spread in the playoffs.
  
  
• The total for Game 6 opened at as low as 210.5, but different sportsbooks are offering substantially different lines as of Saturday morning, anywhere from 208.5 to 212.5.

Thunder vs Mavericks trend

Dallas is 7-4 against the spread in the playoffs. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Mavericks.

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