NBA

Thunder vs Mavericks Prediction, Picks & Odds - Game 4

Published

6m ago

May 13, 2024 / 8691 Views

Evan Walker

The Dallas Mavericks have home court and a huge opportunity to put the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder on the ropes in Game 4 of this second-round series.

After losing the series opener, Dallas has won back-to-back outings, including a 105-101 victory as a 1.5-point favorite in Game 3. The NBA odds for Monday’s matchup sit around that same short line, with OKC a 1.5-point underdog.

I run down the spread and Over/Under for Game 4 and give my NBA picks and Thunder vs. Mavericks predictions on May 13.

Thunder vs Mavericks prediction

My best bet
Luka Doncic Over 8.5 assists (-115 at DraftKings)

Best odds available in your region
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My analysis
Between Lu Dort's defense and the wear-and-tear of the postseason, the Oklahoma City Thunder are doing a good job containing Luka Doncic in this second-round series. OKC has held the Dallas Mavericks star scorer to 19 points in Game 1 and 22 in Game 3. Doncic does, however, have other ways to lift his team.

He had nine assists in the series opener before outputs of five and seven dimes the past two outings yet he continues to set up his teammates for solid looks, averaging 15 potential assists through the first three games.

Doncic has gone Under his closing assist total of 9.5 the past two games, which has bookies dropping that total to just 8.5 O/U for Game 4. Overall, Luka has dished out 9+ helpers in six of his nine playoff games so far in 2024.

All of the player projections for Game 4 call for at least 9.5 assists with my number coming out closer to 9.9 and the ceiling sitting near 10.5 dimes.

Doncic is nursing both a sore knee and bum ankle but is still the focus of the Mavericks' offense and is touching the ball on almost every possession. He's listed as questionable again for Game 4 but had a similar status for Game 3 and played 40 minutes.

His five assists in Game 3 also came with plenty of missed opportunities, with the Mavs not shooting well from the perimeter and getting blocked at the rim (OKC registered 11 total blocks). Doncic finished the game with 10 potential assists.

Given my projection, the Over 8.5 assists should be priced around -175, however, you can find that same ask as low as -115 at DraftKings on Monday morning.

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Thunder vs Mavericks same-game parlay (SGP)

Luka Doncic Over 8.5 assists

Chet Holmgren Over 14.5 points

Over 213.5

+455 at DraftKings

Luka’s assist output has been hurt by some poor shooting, but his potential assists still sit very high and projections call for 10 dimes tonight.

Many of Chet Holmgren’s scoring models call for 16+ from OKC’s big man, with his ceiling for shot attempts higher than his Game 3 output.

Dallas didn’t shoot well from outside or the free throw line, and missed/got blocked on closer looks at the rim in Game 3. I’m buying back the Over after the downtick in the total.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Thunder vs Mavericks odds

Thunder vs Mavericks live odds

Get the latest Thunder vs. Mavericks NBA playoff odds for Game 4.

Thunder vs Mavericks opening odds

Spread: Oklahoma City +2.5 | Dallas -2.5
Moneyline: Oklahoma City +120 | Dallas -140
Over/Under: Over 215 | Under 215

Thunder vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis

Following the Mavericks’ win in Game 3, oddsmakers opened Dallas as 1.5-point home chalk for Monday’s Game 4. That spread has sunk to as low as -1 at some books, but the majority of the market is dealing the half-point hook.
Dallas star Luka Doncic is listed as questionable for Game 4 but had a similar status entering Game 3 due to knee and ankle injuries. He played 40 minutes and is expected to be in action again tonight.
The Over/Under total for Game 4 opened at 215 points and has since slipped to as low as 213.5 O/U. This is the shortest total of the series, with Game 3 playing Under the closing total of 216.5 O/U.
According to Covers Consensus data, 62% of picks are laying the short spread with the host Mavericks on Monday night. As for the total, 64% of picks are betting the Over.