Penguins vs Maple Leafs Prediction, Picks & NHL Odds

We’ve got 14 games on the NHL betting slate tonight, including an Eastern Conference showdown between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Pittsburgh Penguins.

The NHL odds heavily favor the Leafs to win in their home opener tonight, and I think it’ll be powered by an offensive outburst led by newly-minted captain Auston Matthews. 

Find out why in my free NHL picks and Penguins vs. Maple Leafs predictions for October 12.

Penguins vs Maple Leafs prediction

My best bet
Maple Leafs team total Over 3.5 (-135 at Sports Interaction)

My analysis

The Toronto Maple Leafs have owned this matchup with the Pittsburgh Penguins of late, winning four of the last five meetings and scoring 21 goals over that span. I think that trend continues tonight for the Leafs, which is why I’m taking Maple Leafs Over 3.5 goals as my best bet.

The Buds offense has been quite dangerous despite the lack of results through the first couple of games. Toronto has just four goals but they rank second in the NHL in expected goals (4.29 xG per game) according to Natural Stat Trick. 

According to Moneypuck.com, the Leafs’ top line of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and Matthew Knies ranks fifth in the NHL in expected goals (1.9 xG) through the first two games, with Knies being tied for the second most high-danger shots in the league to this point in the season. It’s only a matter of time before that line starts producing, and tonight feels like a strong bet for that to happen. 

Why, you ask?

Well, one reason is simply because it’s hard to see those talented players all go pointless through the first three games of the season, but it’s moreso because Pittsburgh is a mess defensively and in net. 

The Penguins have given up 40 and 32 shots, respectively, to their previous two opponents this year, averaging 4.5 goals against per contest. Additionally, the Pens have the fourth-worst expected goals against in the league so far, giving up a plethora of quality chances to their opponent. Toronto should be able to take advantage of that weakness and fill the net tonight. 

The final reason I see the Buds netting 4+ goals tonight is because I expect the power play to finally break through to add some additional offense. Toronto scored at a 24% clip on the man-advantage last year with the same five-man unit but are 0-for-6 to start the 2024-25 campaign. The home crowd should give the Leafs the edge here to get the first power-play marker of the year and help get that goal total to four or more. 

Penguins vs Maple Leafs same-game parlay (SGP)

Maple Leafs team total Over 3.5

Auston Matthews anytime goal

Maple Leafs moneyline

+165 at Sports Interaction

In addition to my best bet, I like Matthews to finally find the back of the net. 

He had six goals by Game 3 of last season but has yet to light the lamp this year despite a number of quality chances and hit posts. I think he finds a way to score tonight in a thrilling matchup against the Pens on a Saturday night home opener.

For my final leg, I’ll take the Maple Leafs on the moneyline. They’re the better team on paper and have looked that way through the first two Games. Plus, Toronto has matched up well against Pittsburgh over the last few years, winning four of the last five meetings and outscoring them 21-8.

Learn how to bet a same-Game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Sports Interaction: Canada’s home for NHL

Looking to bet on some Leafs action? Join Sports Interaction, the best in Canada for new bettors, and get a 125% bonus on your first deposit (up to $250)!

Sign Up Now 

^{*Not available in Ontario}

Penguins vs Maple Leafs odds

Penguins vs Maple Leafs live odds

Pet="">Gameid="311192" location="covers_Game_odds" cta="" removeclickouts="true" removeheading="true">

Penguins vs Maple Leafs opening odds

• Puck line: Pittsburgh +1.5 | Toronto -1.5
• Moneyline: Pittsburgh +166 | Toronto -190
• Over/Under: Over 6.5 | Under 6.5

Penguins vs Maple Leafs moneyline and Over/Under analysis

• The Maple Leafs come into tonight as the heavy favorites at -200 odds on home ice, giving them an implied probability of 66.7% chance to win tonight.
• Meanwhile, while the Penguins are getting +165 odds on the road.
• The total for tonight’s game is set at 6.5 goals, with both sides of the total paying -110.
• Historically, these two clubs have played each other tight, with the Under being 7-2-1 over the last 10 meetings.

Penguins vs Maple Leafs trend

The Under is a combined 2-1-1 between the Leafs and Penguins this season. Find more NHL betting trends for Penguins vs. Maple Leafs.

Penguins vs Maple Leafs game info

Penguins vs Maple Leafs latest injuries