Pacers vs Knicks Prediction, Picks & Odds - Game 7

With a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals on the line, the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks play a Game 7 on Sunday afternoon. It’s the first Game 7 in Madison Square Garden in nearly 30 years, and the NBA odds are projecting a tight, low-scoring game.

However, my NBA picks and Pacers vs. Knicks predictions dive deep into the offenses in this series and why I think this might look different than some Game 7s in the recent past.

Pacers vs Knicks prediction

My best bet
Over 208 (-110 at bet365)

My analysis
Oddsmakers are projecting a dramatically lower-scoring conclusion to the Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks second-round series than what we’ve seen so far.

Sunday’s total is hovering around 208 to 208.5 after previous marks in the series came in between 218 to 220. In terms of actual scoring, 210 has been the lowest total of the series so far, with an average total of 224.5.

This line moving so drastically is somewhat understandable. Game 7s are pressure cookers unlike anything else in sports. Players get tight and the Pacers have already gotten rattled once playing in front of the roaring MSG crowd.

However, the opposite has also been true. The Knicks have been scoring like gangbusters at home, scoring 121, 131, and 121 in Games 1, 2, and 5. Outside of Game 5, the Pacers have also largely had no issue scoring on the road.

The other reason Game 7s are usually lower scoring is that teams have had the chance, over six breaks between seven games, to tinker with their defensive schemes to take away what both teams like to do best. 

Teams grow familiar with one another and comfortable in their coverages. Thinking decreases, reaction time improves, and defenses get stingier. Except that hasn’t happened in this series. It's been the offenses, not the defenses, that have shown more resiliency and dynamism as the series has gone on.

The game-to-game tactical innovations have never stopped, with substantial wrinkles going both ways in every game. In part, that has been due to New York's growing injury list and new players being injected into the series, who have demanded new coverages and made old ones no longer viable.

With uncertainty around the status of Josh Hart and OG Anunoby for Game 7, neither team can rely on comfort or familiarity. The matchups could be different yet again, which could create just enough hesitation and defensive breakdowns to allow better-than-projected scoring.

The Knicks have never quite figured out a way to limit TJ McConnell. The Pacers are now spamming Pascal Siakam post-ups to great effect, another move without an obvious answer if OG doesn’t return and play major, unencumbered minutes (which seems unlikely).

The Pacers meanwhile have thrown everything at Jalen Brunson. They smartly put two on the ball cheating off Hart in the last matchup, but after a poor first half, Brunson eventually problem-solved his way through that look too. 

If OG does return, his shooting further opens up the court and makes that look untenable. Anunoby is known as a defensive force but a limited version of him might be more impactful offensively than defensively as the Knicks are starved for shooting.

It’s easy to believe we know some immutable facts about Game 7s but in the grand scheme of things, there just haven’t been that many of them in NBA history. 

While conventional wisdom suggests this game should be played in the mud, I think the particular circumstances of this series will continue to favor a level of offense more in line with what we’ve seen than a dramatic drop-off.

Pacers vs Knicks same-game parlay (SGP)

Over 208.5

Myles Turner Over 1.5 threes

Aaron Nesmith Under 1.5 threes

+525 at DraftKings

Guarding a stretch five — and Myles Turner in particular — has proven consistently problematic for this Knicks team, who want to have their bigs around the basket as much as possible.

That’s led to a lot of late closeouts and open looks from downtown for Turner, who is averaging two made threes per game on 46.2% shooting. As one of the most experienced players on the Pacers, I like his chances of performing well while other players may wilt in the face of the Game 7 pressure. 

Aaron Nesmith on the other hand, might be a wilter. He's done yeoman’s work guarding Brunson in this series, but his outside shot has deserted him. He’s shooting just 22.7% from deep in the series and is only averaging 3.7 attempts. He’s also now missed 10 of his last 11 shots from beyond the arc.

Learn how to bet a same-Game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Pacers vs Knicks odds

Pacers vs Knicks live odds

Get the latest Pacers vs Knicks NBA playoff odds for Game 7.

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Pacers vs Knicks opening odds

• Spread: Indiana +3 | New York -3
• Moneyline: Indiana +125 | New York -150
• Over/Under: Over 208.5 | Under 208.5

Pacers vs Knicks spread and Over/Under analysis

• The Knicks opened as -3 point favorites, dipped a bit to as little as -2, but are now available at -3.5 as of Sunday morning.
  
  
• The Pacers are just 1-5 straight up on the road during these playoffs.
  
  
• Sunday’s total has come in anywhere from 208 to 209.5, which is a significant drop from previous marks in the series which have hovered between 218 to 220.
  
  
• The Over is 20-7 in New York's last 27 games.

Pacers vs Knicks trend

The Over is 20-7 in New York's last 27 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Knicks.

Pacers vs Knicks game info

Pacers vs Knicks latest injuries

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