NFL best bets and Week 10 Expert Picks & Predictions | Pickswise

We’re officially over the halfway point in the 2024 NFL season and now is when Games start to matter more than ever with the home stretch in sight. Thursday Night Football lived up to the hype as the Baltimore Ravens edged the Cincinnati Bengals 35-34 in an instant classic that saw Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and especially Ja’Marr Chase put up insane numbers, and it will be exciting to see what more action comes our way in Sunday’s huge slate. Our expert picked Bengals +6 as their best bet of TNF and now we have even more of our Pickswise experts’ 3-star NFL best bets for this Sunday’s Games, while you can also find out our NFL picks on the side and total for EVERY matchup this season.

NFL Week 10 best bet: Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 over Washington Commanders (+100)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +2.

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Washington Commanders will face off this Sunday in a battle between 2 of the biggest surprises this season. Pittsburgh’s win total was 8.5 entering the year, while Washington just surpassed their 6.5 win total with their 7th win last week. Additionally, Commanders rookie QB Jayden Daniels is the odds-on favorite to win the NFL Rookie of the Year, and he’s even in the race for NFL MVP (+1000 at Caesars Sportsbook). Daniels has completely revitalized a Washington offense that ranks #1 in the NFL in expected points added (EPA), and it can’t be understated how he’s changed this team. However, he will likely have his work cut out for him this Sunday, as Pittsburgh is the best defense the Commanders will go up against this season.

The Steelers are 6th in the NFL in defensive EPA (-0.08 EPA) and give up just 14.9 points per Game (2nd in the NFL). They’ve been extremely good at stopping the run (90.5 yards allowed per contest — 4th in the NFL), which is necessary against a CoMMAnders offense that racks up 163.9 rushing yards per Game (3rd in the NFL). Additionally, QB Russell Wilson has played great since his first start in Week 7, as the Steelers rank 5th in the NFL in offensive EPA with Wilson under center. Now he will face a CoMMAnders defense that has played well the last 3 weeks, but those Games were against the Giants, Bears and Panthers, who all rank in the bottom half of the NFL in scoring.

I expected this game to be closer to a pick ‘em, as the Commanders’ lone win against a team with a winning record was against the Cardinals. Additionally, Washington head coach Dan Quinn is just 25-35 ATS as a favorite, while Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is 61-35-4 ATS and Wilson is 40-23-2 ATS as an underdog. Finally, the Steelers are coming off their bye week, and Tomlin’s team has gone 13-4 after the bye, winning 7 straight contests. Expect all 4 trends to continue this Sunday and back the Steelers to cover the spread and possibly win this game outright.

Read our full Pittsburgh Steelers vs Washington Commanders predictions

NFL Week 10 best bet: Tennessee Titans vs LA Chargers Under 39 (-110)

Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to 38.5.

The Chargers are the most profitable team on the under through 9 weeks. The under is 8-1 in Chargers games this season, with the lone over hitting in Week 6 against the Broncos. Even then, only 39 points were scored (the game total was 37). Not a single Chargers game has reached 40 points yet, so why stray from the trend — especially against a Titans team that ranks 27th in points per game and owns the best secondary in football? That’s right, while the Titans’ defensive line has been shaky, their secondary has been elite. Tennessee is allowing only 155.8 passing yards per game, which ranks 1st in the NFL. If you’re Harbaugh, there’s no reason to attack the secondary when the Chargers’ wide receiving corps is already subpar. Instead, expect a heavy dose of JK Dobbins on the ground.

If the Chargers ride Dobbins for 20 or more carries to avoid the Tennessee secondary, it will create a running clock with long possessions. That’s the perfect recipe for the under. And the Titans are in a very similar spot since their quarterback situation is up in the air and the Chargers’ secondary is impressive. Instead, Tony Pollard will likely have another busy day on the ground. I’ll happily keep taking the Under in Chargers Games when the total is near 40 points.

Read our full Tennessee Titans vs LA Chargers predictions

NFL Week 10 best bet: Houston Texans +3.5 over Detroit Lions (-110)

Odds available at Bet365 at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Fading the Detroit Lions feels like a big mistake in 2024. Dan Campbell’s team looks like it may be the best in the NFL, and last week’s win certainly didn’t hurt that perception. Detroit struggled before against Green Bay, most notably last season when Jordan Love torched their defense on Thanksgiving in front of a national audience. Week 9 saw no such result. In the rain and muck, an environment that Packers’ coach Matt LaFleur has loved this season thanks to his innovative run schemes, the Lions piled it up on their rival on their home turf. The Lions looked tougher, better coached and more motivated to secure a big win. Against a program as steady and dangerous as the Packers, it was an incredibly impressive showing.

On the other side, perceptions are the exact opposite. While Houston remains atop the AFC South by a wide margin, they’re coming off a rough outing at the Meadowlands, where their star QB was battered and beaten 2 years in a row, and the Texans left with a loss. Lately, their offensive line has been the biggest issue. CJ Stroud was sacked a whopping 8 times last Thursday against the Jets. No QB has been hurried more this season (41), and Stroud has been brought down 16 times in his last 4 starts. Still, despite some turmoil, Houston is 6-3 and coming off an extended break, 10 full days of rest, and their schedule is about to get much more accommodating.

As elite as the Lions have been, this is a fantastic spot for the Texans. They’ve been on the road for 3 of their last 4 contests. Now they get to stay in Texas for the rest of November, and they’ve had a lot of time to prepare for this one. This week they worked out several offensive linemen to try and fix some of their issues, including ex-Cowboys guard La’El Collins. But with Detroit’s star edge-rusher Aidan Hutchinson sidelined for the season, it may not matter as much; the Lions have only garnered 1 sack in their last 2 games. We hate going against the Lions, but this is a very sleepy letdown spot following an emotional victory, and Houston wants to get right and they’re back at home, and we’re getting over 3 points, the most crucial key number in NFL spreads. I’m all in on the Texans for this one.

Read our full Detroit Lions vs Houston Texans predictions