NFL AFC South Predictions, Odds & Season Projections | Pickswise

Football is just about back! If you are in the Business of watching preseason action, in fact, it is already here. As for the real thing, it kicks off on September 5 with Thursday Night Football between the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens. Here at Pickswise we are building up to the new season and you can check out our NFL futures guide, which has our Super Bowl winner picks, MVP best bets, player award predictions and much more.

For now, we are breaking down every division with in-depth team analysis and best bets. Let’s dive into the AFC South, which may not be particularly strong on paper but does boast some young teams presumably going in the right direction. Here are the NFL odds and our expert NFL picks for the division. 

AFC South Odds 

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and available at time of publishing. 

• Houston Texans +105 

• Jacksonville Jaguars +275 

• Indianapolis Colts +310 

• Tennessee Titans +1000 

 

 

Houston Texans (+105) 

To say that Houston is on the rise would be a gross understatement. The franchise appears to have hit recent home runs with head coach Demeco Ryans and quarterback C.J. Stroud. Getting Stroud at #2 overall in the 2023 draft really sent the Texans into a positive trajectory. They went 10-7 in Stroud’s rookie season, which doesn’t jump off the page in and of itself – but it does when you consider that they were coming off a 3-13 campaign. Houston also added both Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon, plus Tank Dell will be back from injury. The offense is ready to explode. Throw Danielle Hunter in the mix on defense and this squad has improved on both sides of the ball. Houston is simply the best team in this division, and it’s probably not even that close.  

Houston Texans best bet: Texans to win the AFC South (+105) 

Jacksonville Jaguars (+275) 

The Jaguars’ last two seasons have been an absolute roller-coaster ride. They made the playoffs in 2022 and engineered a comeback for the ages against the Los Angeles Chargers in the wild-card round before falling to the Kansas City Chiefs in a competitive contest. Jacksonville seemed well on its way to another playoff berth in 2023 when it was 8-3, but a complete meltdown the rest of the way threw away the division and kept the team entirely out of the postseason picture. The Jags may not be able to recover. Trevor Lawrence is a good quarterback but arguably has not lived up to expectations as a #1 pick; he also lost a weapon in wide receiver Calvin Ridley. Even in an unspectacular division, Jacksonville may be hard pressed to produce another winning record in 2024. 

Jacksonville Jaguars best bet: Jaguars to miss the playoffs (-155)

 

Indianapolis Colts (+310) 

The Colts are probably a year or 2 away from being a serious threat, but the key for now is to make progress. They can do that if Anthony Richardson stays on the field, which was not the case in 2023. The first-round draft pick out of Florida played in only 4 games before missing the rest of the season due to a shoulder injury. Richardson showed plenty of promise in limited work, so optimism abounds for the future. As for the present, it may not be as bright. Jonathan Taylor is still in his prime at 25 years old, but running backs’ numbers generally decline sooner rather than later and that has already happened for Taylor – in part because of injuries. Keep in mind that the defense was a bottom-10 unit in the NFL last season, too. Like Jacksonville, Indianapolis is a mediocre team that could be in contention for most of the season but can ultimately be expected to finish below .500.  

Indianapolis Colts best bet: Colts Under 8.5 wins (-115) 

Tennessee Titans (+1000) 

Tennessee is in rebuilding mode and has tasked first-year head coach Brian Callahan with the job. Callahan had been the offensive coordinator for the Cincinnati Bengals dating back to 2019, which obviously included a lot of success with Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. Still, the jury is out on how the 40-year-old will fare as a head coach. He certainly doesn’t have the likes of Burrow and Chase to work with in Tennessee. Will Levis has potential at quarterback and the addition of Ridley should help, but at best this offense is a work in progress. A middle-of-the-road defense finished dead last in the NFL in interceptions with a mere 6. As a last-place team in 2023, the Titans have an easy schedule and therefore may not be among the worst teams in the league. However, they will likely struggle even in a relatively bad division. 

Tennessee Titans best bet: Titans Under 2.5 division wins (-135) 

AFC South division predictions 

1. Houston Texans 

1. Jacksonville Jaguars 

1. Indianapolis Colts 

1. Tennessee Titans 

AFC South Best Bet: Houston Texans to win the division (+105) 

There is no need to overthink this one: Houston is the cream of the crop in the AFC South. Stroud is a bona fide NFL MVP contender, and even if he doesn’t take the next step toward greatness in 2024 the Texans still should run away with this division. They have superior talent to their rivals on both offense and defense. Although the other 3 teams also boast promising young quarterbacks, they aren’t the same as Stroud. And they also don’t have as much help. You should back Houston and do so with confidence.