The New York Mets (88-72) take on the Atlanta Braves (88-72) in the 1st Game of a doubleheader Monday at Truist Park. First pitch is slated for 1:10 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Mets vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Braves lead 6-5
The Mets, Braves and Arizona Diamondbacks are in limbo for 2 playoff spots. The D-Backs can only be the 6th seed or miss the playoffs entirely.
- The Mets make the playoffs by either splitting or sweeping the doubleheader.
- The Braves make the playoffs by either splitting or sweeping the doubleheader.
- The Diamondbacks make the playoffs if either the Mets or Braves sweep the doubleheader.
The Mets were one of the hottest teams in the league down the stretch, but they dropped 3 in a row before beating the Milwaukee Brewers 5-0 Sunday. They are 42-37 on the road this season. 1B Pete Alonso, aka the Polar Bear, has gone into hibernation recently. He’s 1-for-13 (.077) with 5 K’s over the last 7 days.
The Braves were left for dead after catastrophic injuries decimated them all season. They won 5 of 6 to put them into position where a victory punches their ticket. After battling injuries all season, OF Michael Harris is 6-for-15 (.400) with a homer and 2 RBIs over the last 7 days.
Mets at Braves projected starters
RHP Tylor Megill vs. RHP Spencer Schwellenbach
Megill (4-6, 3.98 ERA) makes his 15th start (16th appearance). He has a 1.27 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 through 72 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 2-1 home win Sept. 22 against Philadelphia Phillies
- Career vs. Braves: 1-4, 4.94 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 in 47 1/3 IP (9 GS, 10 games)
SchwelleNBAch (8-7, 3.47 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 116 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 5-1 home victory Tuesday against Mets
- Last 3 starts: 3-0, 1.89 ERA, 15 K in 19 IP
- 2 career starts vs. Mets: 2-0, 0.64 ERA, 0.43 WHIP, 15 K in 14 IP
Mets at Braves odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 8:40 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mets +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Braves -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-165) | Braves -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Mets at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 4, Mets 3
Moneyline
Both teams are going to pull out all stops to win this one. The Braves have ace Chris Sale lined up for Game 2, but I would imagine he would be pushed back to the Wild Card round if they, scratch that, when they take this one. SchewelleNBAch has been great in his last 3 starts, and he has only had 1 bad start in his last 7 with a 2.41 ERA to boot.
The BRAVES -155 are right at the threshold of a ML play.
Run line/Against the spread
We’re going with MARCELL OZUNA OVER 1.5 H+R+RBIS (-155) here. He’s 6-for-12 (.500) with 2 homers and a double off of Megill. He has been the team’s MVP on offense, and he delivers Monday.
Over/Under
It’s 76 degrees with an 8-mph wind blowing in from right-center. The Over has cashed in 4 of the last 10 meetings. The Mets are 6-4 O/U in their last 10, but the Braves are just 2-7-1. I think the wind and the intensity keep this one UNDER 7.5 (-105).
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