MLB parlay at mega (+929) odds on Saturday, 7/15 | Pickswise

Baseball returned on Friday night after a short hiatus for the all-star break, but thankfully we’re back to action-packed weekend slates. Today, baseball begins at 1:05 in Philadelphia between the Padres and the Phillies and goes all through the day before the last first pitch of the day takes place in Seattle between the Tigers and Mariners. I’ve crafted a 3-team mega parlay that pays out at +929 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, so let’s get right into it.

Marlins -1.5 (+172)

Red Sox-Cubs alternate under 7.5 (+122)

Braves -1.5 (-142)

Parlay odds: +929

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Miami Marlins -1.5 (+172) over Baltimore Orioles

If you told me that the Marlins would have the 4th most wins at the all-star break, I’d call you the most biased and optimistic Miami fan on the planet. Now, I would have loved it since I took the over on Miami’s win total this season, but the 4th most wins in baseball would have seemed far-fetched. Fast forward to the present day, and only the Braves, Rays and Orioles have more wins than the Fish. They’ve been a true underdog this season and have a great story in Luis Arraez chasing .400. But the real reason behind their success has been their pitching. Between Sandy Alcantara, Jesus Luzardo, Eury Perez and Braxton Garrett, the Marlins’ starting rotation is near the best in the business. Garrett was in the shadows of Alcantara and Luzardo for the first month or two of the season, but the lefty grew into prime Randy Johnson during May. 

In April and May, Garrett was looking like a Triple-A pitcher. He allowed a .274 batting average and a .288 xBA along with a 47% hard-hit rate in that time. But something clicked for the southpaw soon after that since Garrett has allowed 3 runs or less in 10 of his last 11 starts. In that span, Garrett has allowed a .200 batting average and a .231 xBA while posting a 31% strikeout rate to just a 4% walk rate. The 25-year-old will face the veteran Kyle Gibson on Saturday night in Baltimore, and I mention the location because the setting is key for Gibson. On the road, Gibson has a 4.21 ERA and is allowing a .241 batting average. That’s not terrible, but at home, his ERA jumps to 5.19 and opponents have a .291 average against him. For some reason, Camden Yards has been his worst nightmare. I think Arraez and the Fish can take advantage of that in an underdog victory.

Boston Red Sox vs Chicago Cubs Under 7.5 (+122)

James Paxton and Marcus Stroman have been two of the biggest surprises this season. This is Paxton’s first full season since 2019, and he’s been nothing short of incredible. In 10 starts in the first half, the Big Maple had a 2.73 ERA paired with a 3.15 xERA along with a 29.1% strikeout rate. He earned the American League Pitcher of the Month in June after posting a 1.74 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in 5 starts, and he went into the break with a dominant performance against the A’s at home. The Red Sox didn’t know what to expect when getting Paxton back, but it’s safe to say that he’s been a pleasant surprise for Boston’s struggling rotation.

The most common name being thrown around at this year’s trade deadline is Marcus Stroman. Chicago’s ace has a 2.96 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP in 19 starts, and he has one of the highest ground-ball rates in the league. Of all the balls put in play against Stroman, 59% of them have been on the ground. He’s been able to minimize extra-base hits and home runs by using his sinker and slider to keep the ball on the ground. Saturday’s start will be Stroman’s 10th at Wrigley the season, and so far, he’s been dominant in the North Side of Chicago. Stroman has a 2.81 ERA and has limited hitters to just a .169 batting average and .490 OPS at home this season. Between Paxton and Stroman on the mound, I’m expecting a very low-scoring Game. 

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Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-142) over Chicago White Sox

Spencer Strider on the mound with the Braves’ offense at the plate is an unfair combination. Strider finished the first half of the season with a 3.34 ERA, 3.08 xERA and a 2.84 FIP in 18 starts. He has become one of the best and most popular pitchers in baseball thanks to his high-velocity fastball, tree trunks for quads and fabulous mustache. The Clemson alum’s advanced metrics also agree with his success since he ranks in the 85th percentile or better in xBA, xERA, strikeout rate, chase rate and whiff rate. The only thing Strider can struggle with is getting barreled, which isn’t too surprising since his high-velo fastball can cause a lot of extra-base hits. He will start the second half of the season at home, which is yet another advantage for Strider. Although he has a slightly higher ERA at home than on the road, opponents hit much worse against him in Atlanta. Hitters had just a .192 average, .245 on-base percentage, .318 slugging percentage and .564 OPS against Strider at Truist Park in the first half of the season. To no surprise, the Braves have won 8 of Strider’s 9 home starts. 

One of the biggest mysteries this season has been Lance Lynn. The veteran right-hander has a 6.03 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP at the break, but he’s become a strikeout machine in the last few weeks. Lynn has 51 punchouts in his last 6 starts, which is an insane rate, but he’s also allowed 21 runs in that time too. There seem to be 3 likely outcomes when facing Lynn – strikeout, walk or a home run. In the American League, Lynn has allowed the most runs, home runs and total bases while also surrendering the 3rd most hits. Here’s the part that worries me the most about Lynn facing the Braves: too many fastballs. The veteran throws his four-seam fastball for over 40% of pitches, and before Friday night’s Games, the Braves ranked 1st in the league in fastball runs above average. What is Lynn’s most used secondary pitch, you may ask? A cutter. And can you take a wild guess as to which team ranks 1st against cutters this season? If you guessed the Braves, you would be right. With a top 5 pitcher in the league on the mound with an elite bullpen and the #1 offense in baseball, I’m backing the Braves to bash Lynn and the Sox.

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