MLB

MLB Best Bets for Friday, May 26 from Pickswise expert handicapper Mark Zinno

Published

1y ago

May 26, 2023 / 2376 Views

Evan Walker

We have a big day of MLB action on Friday and I’ve picked out the 3 plays I like most on today’s baseball slate. I went 2-1 in Wednesday’s article, making it a nice 6-1-1 run in my last 3 across the NBA and MLB.

Today I am looking at a run-line play, a first 5-innings money line bet and a first 5-innings under. Let’s get into the reasoning behind those picks.

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Nationals +1.5 over Royals (-178, FanDuel)

The Kansas City Royals and Washington Nationals begin a 3-game series at Kaufmann Stadium on Friday and the Nationals will send beleaguered starter Patrick Corbin to the mound. However, Corbin has actually been better than most people notice, and over his last 4 starts he’s gone at least 6 innings and given up 2 or fewer earned runs. The Nationals have won 3 of his last 4 starts – all games in which the team has allowed 4 or fewer runs. Corbin has also managed to avoid the long ball, allowing just 2 home runs over that same 4-start span.

Kansas City starts Jordan Lyles, who is 0-8 on the season with a 7.15 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. Lyles has been better at home, but it’s hard to justify the Royals being favored here at all considering Kansas City has lost all 10 starts that Lyles has made this season. This feels like a perfect spot to grab the Nationals on the money line at a plus-money price, but just to be sure, I’m willing to pay the heavy juice to take the +1.5 in the run line.

Yankees first 5-inning ML over Padres (+104, FanDuel)

The Yankees and Padres start a 3-game series in the Bronx today. The Padres are starting Joe Musgrove, who has yet to round into form. In May, he’s 0-2 with a 4.60 ERA and has walked 8 batters in 15.2 innings pitched. The Padres lineup also continues to struggle and is dead last in MLB with a .233 average and 22nd out of 30 teams in slugging on the season.

The Yankees counter with Randy Vasquez, who is making his major league debut. The Yankees will have him on a short leash and trust their bullpen to carry him if needed. New York’s bullpen is one of the best in baseball, so Vasquez may not need to go more than 4 innings. The Yankees are also 7th in MLB in runs scored in the first 5 innings on the season while San Diego is 22nd. Musgrove has allowed at least 3 runs in the first 5 in 4 of his 5 starts this season. I like the Yankees to get an early lead and hang on for the first-5 money line as an underdog.

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Under 4.5 in first 5 innings of Red Sox vs Diamondbacks (-105, FanDuel)

The Diamondbacks and Red Sox start a weekend series in the desert and Boston will send Chris Sale to the hill. Sale has gone at least 6 innings and allowed 3 or fewer runs in his last 4 starts. In May, he has settled in nicely with a 2.57 ERA and a sub-1 WHIP. The Red Sox have given Sale some of the best run support in baseball, scoring 5.56 runs in his starts, but much of that came in April. Over his 3 starts in May, they’ve averaged only 4 runs per start.

The D-backs will start rookie Brandon Pfaat. He has had back-to-back solid starts, going at least 5 innings and allowing 3 or fewer runs in both, but the D-backs have scored only 8 runs over his last 3 starts. I like this game to be a bit of a pitchers’ duel early, so let’s look to the under in the first 5 innings as Boston is averaging only 2.5 runs in the first 5 on the road this season. Sale should do enough to keep the rest of the scoring down early.

Check out today’s MLB mega parlay and YRFI/NRFI best bets

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