Michigan State Football - Spartans 2023 Season Preview, Predictions & Best Bets

Michigan State fans hope 2023 will be more like 2021 than 2022. The Spartans won just 5 Games last season and finished 5th in the Big Ten East following an impressive 11-2 record and top 10 finish the year prior. With a few new faces in starting roles on both sides of the ball and a taxing schedule from Week 3 on, coach Mel Tucker is going to have quite a bit on his plate in order to live up to his contract and get the Spartans back to their winning ways.

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Michigan State Spartans 2023 College Football Season Odds

Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook

Michigan State National Championship Odds

The Spartans are more than a longshot to win the national title. They are currently 300/1 to be crowned champions.

Michigan State Spartans Big Ten Championship Odds

Michigan State is listed at 110/1 to win the Big Ten.

Michigan State Big Ten East Odds

Competing against Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State within the division, the Spartans have an uphill battle to earn a spot in the Big Ten Championship. They are 95/1 to win the Big Ten East.

Michigan State Spartans 2022 Season Recap

The Spartans started the season with convincing wins over a couple of MAC teams, but the season quickly went downhill after their 39-28 loss to Washington in Week 3. They proceeded to lose 3 consecutive games following Week 3 and finally snapped their losing streak in a 34-28 overtime win over Wisconsin. Michigan State lost to in-state rival Michigan following its bye week before ending its season with wins over Illinois and Rutgers and losses to Indiana and Penn State in the final 4 weeks.

The offense had its moments, but quarterback Payton Thorne struggled with injuries and reading defenses and the unit was inconsistent as a whole because of it – especially without Kenneth Walker in the backfield on which to rely. Thorne threw 11 interceptions and had a big time throw rate of just 4.2%, which ranked outside the top 30 among power conference quarterbacks. The offensive line was solid but not great, and the skill positions seemed to struggle with consistency just like Thorne despite having a dynamic duo at wide receiver in Jayden Reed and Keon Coleman that accumulated over 1,400 yards and 12 touchdowns combined. Furthermore, the Spartans had 3 running backs with more than 60 carries, but none of them averaged more than 4.7 yards per attempt. 

Michigan State allowed 27.4 points per Game last season, which was outside the top 60 among FBS teams, and yielded 38 points per Game against ranked opponents. However, that does not tell the whole story on the defensive side of the ball. The Spartans battled injuries and suspensions and had over 25 different starters throughout the season. Due to the constant changes in rotation, they ranked outside the top 90 in many advanced defensive stats like drive efficiency, opponent points per drive and touchdown rate, while ranking outside the top 90 in total defense according to PFF. 

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Michigan State Spartans 2023 College Football Season Outlook

Thorne transferred to Auburn, Coleman transferred to Florida State, and Reed now plays for the Green Bay Packers – so the Spartans will look a bit different on offense this year. Redshirt junior Noah Kim projects to be the starting quarterback and will play behind an offensive line that figures to be solid again with all 5 projected starters having played last season, 4 of which played more than 400 snaps. Kim is quite inexperienced with just 19 attempted passes in his college career, but he will have running back Jalen Breger in the backfield with him – who led the team in rushing last year. However, the wide receiver room figures to be a work in progress without Coleman and Reed. Michigan State will need Tre Mosley, Montorie Foster, and Maliq Carr to step up in a big way after the trio tallied under 700 yards and just 7 touchdowns combined. 

Michigan State will be without 3 of its top 4 tacklers from last season, but leading tackler Cal Haladay returns after amassing 120 tackles and 11 tackles for loss. Jacob Windmon returns to play alongside Haladay after accumulating 10.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks a season ago and should provide the Spartans with a solid linebacker core behind a defensive line that is bound to improve. Tucker brought in 4-star transfer defensive end Tunmise Adeleye from Texas A&M to join seniors Kris Bogle and Simeon Barrow Jr in the trenches, and rising sophomores Derrick Harmon, Zion Young, and Ken Taylley are all expected to progress after a year in the system to develop. The main concern with the defense is in the secondary, where the Spartans project to start 2 true sophomores at safety while relying on juniors and seniors at cornerback that ranked outside the top 50 in coverage in the Big Ten and outside the top 150 among the power conferences aside from Chester Kimbrough. 

The Spartans’ schedule starts with 2 winnable Games again before another Week 3 date with Washington – a Game in which the Spartans are currently listed as an 11.5-point underdog. They will host Taulia Tagovailoa and the Maryland Terrapins in Week 4 before Traveling to Iowa in Week 5 for their first road Game. Following their Week 6 bye, they Travel to Rutgers before hosting Michigan. The Spartans will then Travel to Minnesota and host Nebraska in consecutive cross-divisional matchups before a trip to Columbus to meet the Buckeyes, who have beaten the Spartans by a combined score of 105-27 in the last 2 seasons. Finally, Michigan State will round out the regular season with a road trip to Indiana before welcoming Penn State to East Lansing.

Best Bet: Michigan State Spartans under 5.5 wins (-158)

Odds available at FanDuel at the time of publishing.

The Spartans may look better on the field with improved injury luck, but that does not always equate to wins. While I expect the defense to improve, the offense remains a question mark given how little experience Kim has under center and a lack of game-breaking talent at the skill positions. I can confidently project wins against CMU and Richmond in the first 2 weeks, but then I struggle to find any easy wins on Michigan State’s schedule aside from maybe Indiana, whom Michigan State lost to last year. The Spartans are over-matched against Washington, Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State, leaving 6 chances to win 4 more games – assuming they do not slip up in the first 2 weeks of the season. Cross-divisional road games at Iowa and Minnesota will be extremely difficult since the game at Iowa will be Michigan State’s first away from home and the contest against the Golden Gophers comes immediately following the Spartans’ in-state matchup with the Wolverines. Assuming those 2 road games are losses, as well as the 4 against the ranked opponents on their schedule, the Spartans would have to win against Maryland, Rutgers, Nebraska, and Indiana in order to cash this over. I simply do not see that happening given the uncertainty at quarterback and wide receiver. 

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