The Miami Heat (4-6) face the Indiana Pacers (5-6) in the NBA Cup group play on Friday. Tipoff from Gainbridge Fieldhouse is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Heat vs. Pacers odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Pacers won series 2-1 last season

Both teams are coming off close losses. The Heat are on the fifth game of a 6-game road trip and are 1-3 so far. On Tuesday they lost 123-121 to the Detroit Pistons as 1.5-point favorites. The Heat rallied from 18 points down to force overtime, but lost a chance to win when coach Erik Spoelstra called a timeout with 1.1 seconds left that he didn’t have giving Detroit a technical free throw.

The Pacers were 2.5-point road favorites against the Orlando Magic (-2.5) on Tuesday. This game was ugly as each team had 17 turnovers and neither team shot better than 40% from the field. The Magic held on to win 94-90, well below the Over/Under of 224.5. Despite shooting 3-14 from the floor, Pacers PG Tyrese Haliburton was the only Indiana starter with a positive +/- at +5.

Heat at Pacers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NBA odds. Lines last updated at Thursday at 11:46 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Heat +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Pacers -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Heat +4.5 (-115) | Pacers -4.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 226.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Heat at Pacers key injuries

Heat

  • G Jimmy Butler (ankle) out

Pacers

  • Isaiah Jackson (achilles) out
  • Andrew Nembhard (knee) out
  • Aaron Nesmith (ankle) out
  • James Wiseman (achilles) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

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Heat at Pacers picks and predictions

Prediction

Pacers 125, Heat 109

Moneyline

PASS.

The Pacers (-185) are a better bet on the spread.

Against the spread

BET PACERS -4.5 (-105).

Miami is 1-3 on their road trip and even though they are getting an extra day of rest, Indiana’s defense is improving. They allow the 4th-fewest assists per game (23.6) and 6th-fewest fastbreak points (13.2).

The Pacers and Heat are both top teams against the spread after a loss at 4-1. But Indiana has won and covered in their last 3 home games beating the Boston Celtics, New York Knicks and Orlando Magic.

Miami’s road comPetition has been easier, having beaten the Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point, Washington Wizards and Charlotte Hornets.

Over/Under

BET OVER (226.5) 115.

The Pacers are 7-4 towards the Over (63.6%) and are 5-0 after a loss. While the Heat are 5-5 O/U on the season, they are 2-1 as a road dog (66.7%).

Miami also posts the 5th highest 3-point percentage in the NBA (38.8%).

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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